Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating between $115K and $120K since mid-July with the exception of a few hiccups along the way in both directions.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the top crypto have received net inflows exceeding $900 million in the past four days after they started last week with some strong withdrawals.
The market panicked for a moment as Trump progressively implemented higher tariffs aggressively on key commercial allies. The U.S. dollar weakened amid these trade policies and started to favor a bullish outlook for cryptocurrencies.
As a result, the market recovered and Bitcoin jumped near its all-time high on Sunday. Although the price has pulled back since then, it seems that bullish momentum is not going anywhere yet.
Trading volumes for BTC spiked as it touched the $122K area. Selling pressure accelerated at that point and managed to push the token to $118,000. At that point, a strong bounce occurred that has once again touched the upper bound of this tight area of consolidation at $120K.
Sideways trading typically means indecision by market participants. However, in the context of a bull market, it usually signals accumulation by deep-pocketed investors who are expecting a big move up next.
Open Interest in BTC Futures (Expressed in BTC) – Source: CoinGlass
Open interest in BTC futures has been declining aggressively lately. This means that some excess leverage may have been flushed out by the latest up and downswings. If BTC breaks out above or below any of these levels, we could expect an increase in liquidity as market participants will open new positions based on this new information.
This is the perfect scenario for either a big rally or a strong downswing. Liquidity is low, the price is trading in a tight range, and fresh capital is ready to make its way in.
Considering the fact that the macro environment is supportive of a bullish continuation, long positions have the highest odds of producing a favorable outcome.
That said, it is impossible to tell how deep the market will go to flush out existing longs, only to then bring them back after the price swings higher.
The weekly chart for BTC offers an interesting path that the token could follow within the next 3 to 6 months. An ascending price channel has formed with three tags of the lower trend line already, which confirms its relevance for market participants.
BTC/USD Weekly Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView
The upper bound of that channel has not yet been touched for a third time and that gives us a mid-term target for Bitcoin of $157,000 at least, meaning an upside potential of 31% for the next 3 to 6 months.
We could still see a move to the lower bound if this latest retrace accelerates and pushes BTC to around $107. However, a big bounce should occur shortly that retests this trend line resistance.
Heading to a lower time frame, the key support level to watch for BTC in the 4-hour chart would be the $117,700 area. This is a former resistance that could now turn into support. Meanwhile, if that level fails to hold, the next stop would be the $115K zone – the lower bound of this consolidation.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.