Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC is Showing Signs of Bottoming Near $105K

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by more than 8.50% this week, dropping below $105,000 on Oct. 17.

In doing so, the top cryptocurrency is re-entering a historical “fear zone,” a technical region that has consistently marked cycle bottoms and the start of major price recoveries.

Fear Has Always Preceded the Next Rally

The weekly BTC/USD chart shows the cryptocurrency testing the lower boundary of its 350-week moving average (MA) band, a level tagged several times during previous panic phases.

Strong rebounds followed each instance once the market sentiment flipped.

This signal appeared during the FTX crash in late 2022, the ETF-related sell-off in early 2024, and again this week near $101,000. After the 2022 signal, Bitcoin rallied roughly 140%.

The 2024 retest near $74,000 led to a 60% surge to new highs above $120,000.

In October, BTC once again hovered at 350-MA support while fear dominated social media and derivatives markets. Historically, these conditions have coincided with the market’s exhaustion phase.

Bitcoin could aim for the upper end of its long-term channel if the pattern repeats, roughly between $163,000 and $201,000.

Bitcoin Shark Wallets Accumulate at Fastest Pace Since 2013

On-chain data from Glassnode adds another bullish dimension.

Bitcoin “shark” entities, wallets between 100 and 1,000 BTC, are accumulating at their fastest rate since 2013, even as prices decline.

This cohort historically represents experienced, mid-sized investors who tend to accumulate during fear-driven selloffs and distribute into strength. Similar accumulation spikes in 2013, 2018, and 2020 preceded large multimonth rallies.

The surge in net inflows to shark wallets suggests these holders see value at current levels, using the ongoing correction to build positions.

While Bitcoin’s price may stay volatile in the short term, the combination of long-term support near the 350-week MA and record shark accumulation paints a familiar picture: smart money is buying while retail fear peaks.