Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: EIA Reports 3.5M Barrel Build, Extending Price Weakness

Market Overview

WTI crude oil futures slipped to near $57 per barrel, marking a five-month low and a third straight weekly decline as geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics weighed on market sentiment. Traders are monitoring potential policy developments that could alter global supply, particularly amid speculation of eased output restrictions.

Meanwhile, U.S. inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels, according to the EIA, signaling softer consumption and amplifying fears of a growing surplus. Mixed demand signals from major importers further deepened uncertainty.

Together, these factors highlight the fragile balance between geopolitical risk and oversupply in the global oil and gas markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas continues to face selling pressure, trading near $2.90 after breaking below the key $3.06 support. The daily chart shows a clear downtrend, with prices moving beneath both the 50-EMA ($3.30) and 200-EMA ($3.80), signaling persistent bearish momentum.

The RSI sits around 33, hovering near oversold territory, suggesting sellers may soon lose strength. The 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $2.93 is acting as near-term support, while further weakness could expose $2.83 and $2.76 — the 1.618 Fib target.

If buyers manage to defend $2.90, a corrective bounce toward $3.06 or $3.16 is possible. However, a daily close below $2.90 would confirm continuation of the broader downtrend toward the $2.70 zone.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) remains under pressure, trading near $56.60 after failing to break above $57.70 resistance. The 4-hour chart shows a clear descending channel, with prices forming lower highs and lower lows — a sign that sellers still dominate. The 50-EMA ($59.52) and 200-EMA ($61.93) slope downward, reinforcing the bearish trend.

Momentum remains weak, as the RSI hovers near 34, suggesting limited buying interest and room for further downside. A sustained move below $55.90 could accelerate losses toward $54.80 and $54.20.

Conversely, a short-term rebound above $57.70 could trigger a mild correction toward $59.10 before sellers likely regain control. The broader bias remains bearish unless oil breaks decisively above $60.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading near $60.60, holding below the key resistance zone at $61.80. The 4-hour chart shows the price respecting a descending trendline, with both the 50-EMA ($63.33) and 200-EMA ($65.64) trending lower — confirming persistent selling pressure.

The RSI remains subdued near 34, showing weak momentum and potential for another downward move. If prices stay below $61.80, the next downside targets lie around $60.20 and $59.35, followed by $58.40. A brief consolidation near the current level is possible before bears attempt another push lower.

Only a sustained breakout above $63.00 would signal early recovery potential, while continued rejection below $61.80 keeps Brent vulnerable to further declines in the short term.