XRP News Today: $2 Support Pivotal as ETF Flows Signal Upside Trends

XRP reversed lower on Thursday, December 4, after failing to break above resistance at $2.2. A broad-based market sell-off overshadowed a 13-day inflow streak for the US XRP-spot ETF market.

US labor market data cooled bets on multiple Fed rate cuts on Thursday, December 4, weighing on investor sentiment. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped to $90,000 as a resumption of outflows from the US BTC-spot ETF market dragged XRP and the broader market lower.

Nevertheless, XRP-spot and BTC-spot ETFs saw diverging flow trends, fueling speculation about XRP decoupling from BTC. Tailwinds for XRP continue to support a BTC-decoupling event, setting the stage for a bullish price outlook.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

XRP-Spot ETF Inflow Streak Continues

The US XRP-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $50.27 million on Wednesday, December 3, extending the inflow streak to 13 consecutive sessions. The extended inflow streak took total net inflows since launch to $874.28 million, edging close to the $1 billion mark.

Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) led on Wednesday, with net inflows of $17.93 million, taking its since-launch haul to $209.02 million. Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) remains at the top of the flow table, while GXRP flipped Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP) to take the number #2 ranking.

Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton’s XRP-spot ETF sits at the bottom of the flow table despite Franklin Templeton being the largest of the four ETF issuers by ETF assets under management.

The absence of strong demand for XRPZ has placed a greater focus on the other issuers. Grayscale’s presence in the XRP-spot ETF market contrasts sharply with its impact on the BTC-spot ETF market, cooling any immediate need for a BlackRock (BLK) iShares XRP Trust.

For context, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has reported since launch outflows of $25.05 billion, while IBIT has seen inflows of $62.66 billion. Without the robust demand for IBIT, the US BTC-spot ETF markets would be underwater by $4.93 billion.

Just four XRP-spot ETFs have drawn inflows of almost $1 billion. The remaining XRP-spot ETFs, with upcoming launch dates, will further influence XRP’s supply-demand balance and price trends.

Sustained net inflows support a positive price outlook and raise the chances of XRP breaking free from BTC’s shadow, critical to the token’s price trajectory. A decoupling could be crucial given the influence of US economic data on the Fed rate path and, ultimately, BTC’s price trajectory.

US Jobs Data Cools Fed Rate Cut Bets and Bitcoin Demand

Market bets on a December and March Fed rate cut cooled on Thursday, December 4, sending BTC to a session low of $90,901. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell from 218k (week ending November 22) to 191k (week ending November 29). Significantly, jobless claims last dropped below 200k in January 2024, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.

Falling jobless claims and sticky US inflation would reduce Fed rate cut bets, weighing on demand for risk assets.

Notably, BTC briefly climbed to $93,964 before sliding to a low of $90,901 following the jobless claims data. BTC’s price action reflected the Fed’s effect on sentiment, which also affected XRP demand.

Santiment Flags XRP as a Potential Breakout Candidate

Thursday’s loss left XRP down 25.84% for the fourth quarter. Despite the sharp pullback, market intelligence platform Santiment signaled a potential rebound, stating:

“XRP (-31% in the past 2 months), unlike Bitcoin, is seeing the most fear, uncertainty, & doubt (FUD) since October, according to our social data. The last time we saw near this level of fear from the crowd was November 21st, and $XRP’s price immediately rallied +22% over the next 3 days. After that, greed took over and the rally came to a quick halt. As of now, an opportunity appears to be emerging just like 2 weeks ago.”

For context, Santiment sees sentiment across the retail crowd as a key price indicator. The market intelligence platform has previously stated:

“Since we know markets move the opposite direction of the crowd’s predictions, the days where comments dip into the Fear Zone have perfectly predicted upcoming bounces. And alternatively, the days where comments dip into the Greed Zone have perfectly predicted upcoming dips.”

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Unchanged

Several key price catalysts may act as tailwinds for XRP, including:

• Broader investor access to spot ETFs.
• The progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• December and March Fed rate cut bets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a December Fed rate cut fell from 90.0% on December 3 to 87.0% on December 4. Meanwhile, the probability of a March 2026 Fed rate cut stands at 48.8%, down from 53.4% on December 3.

In my opinion, these price catalysts support a near-term (1-4 weeks) rise to $2.35 and a longer-term (8-12 weeks) climb toward $3.

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook

Despite the tailwinds, several scenarios could push XRP lower. These include:

• The Bank of Japan and Fed monetary policy decisions and forward guidance could adversely impact sentiment.
• If MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings could end hopes of XRP becoming a treasury reserve asset.
• The Market Structure Bill faces partisan opposition in the US Senate.
• OCC rejects Bitcoin’s application for a US-chartered banking license.
• XRP-spot ETF outflows.

These events could drag XRP toward $2, bringing the November low of $1.82 into play before a sustained move toward $3.

Nevertheless, in my opinion, spot ETF inflows and the upcoming launch of XRP-spot ETFs will likely drive the token toward $3.

In summary, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP slid 4.56% on Thursday, December 4, reversing the previous day’s 2.03% gain to close at $2.0970. The token underperformed the broader market, which fell 1.6%.

Thursday’s sell-off left XRP below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias. However, fundamentals have shifted from the technical trend, supporting a bullish outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.3068.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4922.
• Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Holding above the $2.0 psychological support level would pave the way to the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would enable the bulls to target the $2.35 resistance level. A breakout above the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal, supporting a longer-term (8-12 weeks) move to $3.0.

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF daily flow trends.
• Blue-chip companies’ views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• MSCI’s decision on DAT listings.
• The Fed and the BoJ’s interest rate decisions and policy outlooks.

Bullish Scenario: What Happens if $2.0 Holds?

Positive market sentiment and avoiding a sustained break below $2.0 would open the door to testing the upper trendline. Breaking above the upper trendline would align with the medium-term $3 price target.

However, a move below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.

Outlook: $2.0 Support Pivotal for Bullish Medium-Term Outlook

XRP will face the spotlight on Friday, December 5, with key US data likely to influence bets on Fed rates and sentiment.

The US Core PCE Price Index and the Michigan Inflation Expectations Index will provide insights into inflation and whether the Fed will cut rates in December and March. Softer inflation would likely send XRP toward $2.2.

However, the Market Structure Bill’s passage on Capitol Hill will also influence XRP price trends.