Natural Gas Price Forecast: $5.09 New High – First Test of 200% Channel Ahead

Thursday’s Continued Advance

Natural gas pushed to a new high of $5.09 Thursday with a higher daily low of $4.87, delivering another clear higher high and low structure. The session low precisely defended the former March trend high at $4.90—converting prior resistance into current support and demonstrating clear trend progression. At writing, price trades near the day’s high and is on track for a strong momentum hammer close above Wednesday’s $5.04 peak.

Key Channel Dynamics

The advance remains heavily influenced by extended parallel lines from the original rising channel. The November high respected the 175% extension, and this week’s three daily lows repeatedly found support at that same line. The 200% extension now sits just above current levels and will serve as the next major dynamic test—capable of producing either exhaustion or an explosive spike higher.

Approaching the 200% Line

The relationship with the 200% channel line merits close attention. Natural gas could continue advancing toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5.28 while hugging or briefly exceeding that upper boundary. A clean push above the line to reach the Fib zone would significantly raise the probability of a subsequent sharp correction—either lower or sideways—once the extreme volatility stretch is achieved.

Weekly Confirmation Building

The weekly chart has already generated a higher swing high above $4.91, triggering long-term bull trend continuation. A weekly close above that level—which now appears probable—would lock in the breakout and add substantial weight to the case for higher prices before any meaningful pullback materializes.

Outlook

Buyers remain firmly in control with every prior resistance level flipping to support and momentum still favoring the topside. The 200% channel line and $5.28 Fib are the immediate focal points—respect or brief penetration there sets the stage for $5.28 minimum but also flags elevated correction risk once the move becomes fully extended. Until proven otherwise, dips continue to be bought and the path of least resistance stays higher.

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