XRP News Today: ETF Delays and Senate Gridlock Gives Bears a Look at $2.0

Another Failed Senate Vote, Another XRP Drop

XRP has fallen 17% in October, as traders reacted to the delay in institutional investor money inflows.

The US government shutdown extended to 16 days on Thursday, October 16, clouding the timeline for XRP-spot ETF approvals. A 51 to 45 vote fell short of the required 60 to pass a Republican bill to reopen the government. No new Democrats crossed the aisle in a tenth vote, fueling fears of a prolonged shutdown.

Political Gridlock Delays ETF Timelines

The US government shutdown means that the SEC is operating with a skeleton staff, pausing key reviews and approvals. Delays include approving the amended S-1s for XRP-spot ETFs. Before the shutdown, markets had speculated that the SEC would approve the seven XRP-spot ETFs by October 18. October 18 marks the first of the final decision deadlines.

Previously, the SEC approved the S-1s for BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETFs on the same day, removing any first-to-market advantage.

Even if the US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill on Friday, October 17, the chances of the agency approving the spot ETFs are slim to none.

Shutdown Stalls Market Structure Bill

The US government shutdown also means that the Market Structure Bill has stalled, leaving the US digital asset space without much-needed crypto regulations. For context, XRP rallied 14.69% on July 17 after the US House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate.

US-China Trade Tensions Add to Market Pressure

Other factors contributing to the sharp October drop include the escalation in the US-China trade war. President Trump has threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese shipments to the US. The threat sent XRP crashing to $0.7773 before retaking the $2.3 handle.

Notably, the shutdown, delays to spot ETF approvals, and rising US-China tensions have overshadowed Ripple’s latest moves to assert its position on Main Street.

Ripple Pushes Ahead with Strategic Expansion

Despite market headwinds, Ripple has advanced its Main Street ambitions. This week, it announced:

• A custody partnership with South Africa’s Absa Bank, fueling speculation about the integration of XRPL for cross-border payments.
• The $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury, expanding Ripple’s reach into the $120 trillion corporate treasury payments market.

Ripple announced the acquisition of GTreasury on October 16, entering the corporate treasury payments market. CEO Brad Garlinghouse shared the press release, stating:

“Today, Ripple is breaking into the $120T corporate treasury payments market with the $1B acquisition of GTreasury.”

Garlinghouse discussed the reasons behind the acquisition and the need for crypto and blockchain tech to address inefficiencies in payment infrastructure, stating:

“The past few years have reminded this industry why payments, first and foremost, is THE primary use case for crypto and blockchain. Payments are where Ripple first started for exactly these reasons – the infrastructure is complex, siloed and inefficient, but as we know, perfectly positioned to benefit from decentralized financial technologies.”

He also highlighted GTreasury’s key attributes and how Ripple aims to target the corporate treasury payments space, stating:

“Astounding amounts of cash are trapped in outdated payments systems, creating friction, unnecessary costs, and barriers to entering new markets. GTreasury has been serving some of the most well known brands for decades – and now together with Ripple, we’ll be able to help CFOs manage all their assets, include stablecoins, tokenized deposits, etc., at scale around the world, as well as put their idle capital to work with repo markets via Hidden Road.”

Tokenization and Institutional Demand

Ripple’s strategic expansion into Main Street could further legitimize XRP, potentially boosting much-needed institutional demand.

However, traders may need the US government to reopen, the SEC to approve spot ETFs, the US and China to de-escalate, and the Fed to cut rates. These events would likely tilt the supply-demand balance in XRP’s favor.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will XRP Hold $2?

XRP dropped 3.46% on Thursday, October 16, following the previous day’s 3.9% loss, closing at $2.3290. A three-day losing streak left XRP below the $2.4 level, bringing the psychological $2 level into sight. The token continued to underperform the broader market and pulled further back from the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
• Technical resistance levels: the 200-day EMA at $2.6262 and the 50-day EMA at $2.7924.
• Resistance levels: $2.4, $2.7, and $3.0.

Catalysts & Scenarios

In the coming sessions, several key drivers could dictate near-term price trends:

• US-China trade talks.
• The US government shutdown.
• XRP-spot ETF developments (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.2

• BlackRock downplays plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• US Senate impasse continues, delaying XRP-spot ETF approvals.
• The US Senate delays crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT retains its market share in the global remittance market, capping Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could drag XRP back toward $2.2. If breached, $2.0 would be the next key support level.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3

• The US and China reach a trade agreement.
• US government reopens.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies boost XRP holdings for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• Ripple sees growing demand for XRPL on Main Street, challenging SWIFT’s market dominance.

These bullish scenarios could drive XRP toward $3.0.

Shutdowns, China, and the Fed

The crypto market desperately needs good news, having seen its total market cap tumble from $4.27 trillion on October 6 to $3.64 trillion on October 17.

A stopgap funding bill could be crucial, given the potential delays to XRP-spot ETF launches and the Market Structure Bill’s lack of progress in the Senate.

Easing US-China trade tensions and Fed rate cuts could boost demand for XRP. Nevertheless, spot ETF approvals and the passing of the Market Structure Bill will likely be the two main price catalysts.

Final Thoughts

All eyes are on the Senate, where an eleventh vote could determine whether XRP reclaims $3 or continues its fall toward $2.

Traders should closely monitor Capitol Hill, US-China trade headlines, and Fed commentary.