Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Could Fully Recover If History Repeats – $200K Next?

The last few days have not been kind to Bitcoin (BTC), and cryptos as a whole, for that matter, as the top token has retreated by 6% in the past month.

President Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imported goods overnight resulted in a big drop in crypto prices in just hours and flushed out nearly $16 billion worth of long positions out of the futures market.

Fear and Greed Index – Source: CoinMarketCap

The Fear and Greed Index shows that investors panicked amid these developments, and the market is now cautious about how the Federal Reserve could react to Trump’s decision, as the central bank could opt to postpone its planned interest rate cut for this month in light of these recent events.

As a result, investors are wondering if Trump ended this bull market for good or if this is just a correction that may be worth buying.

Open Interest Recovers Slowly and ETF Inflows Turn Negative

Open Interest in Bitcoin Futures – Source: CoinGlass

Open interest in Bitcoin futures has been progressively recovering in the past few days following a sharp drop on October 10 that pushed OI (in BTC) from 741,500 to 624,4000 – a 16% single-day drop.

However, these levels have not been seen since May this year, back when BTC traded at $103,000 and the bull market was just getting started. Hence, traders don’t seem to be ready to jump back into the market just yet.

That said, negative net inflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) decelerated yesterday to $40 million but have still finished the day in red territory for four sessions in a row, further confirming that investors are cautiously reducing their positions.

During this period, more than $1 billion has been taken out of BTC-linked vehicles. Although this sounds like a lot, it is nothing when expressed as a percentage of the $61 billion that these funds still manage.

For now, the evidence is not there to support that this could be the beginning of a bear market. In contrast, historical trends suggest that Bitcoin could bounce strongly off this level as extremely negative market sentiment tends to be a contrarian indicator.

Weekly Trend Favors Bullish Outlook for Bitcoin

The weekly chart for BTC shows that the top crypto is nearing a key support at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). When such a move is paired with a low reading in the Fear and Greed Index, Bitcoin has bounced strongly to make a higher high just a few weeks later.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart – Source: TradingView

The last time this happened was in April 2025, when the Fear and Greed Index dropped to as low as 17. Back then, BTC traded for $77,000. Just 4 months after, the token reached a new all-time high as it climbed to $123,000.

Hence, only a bearish breakout below the 50W SMA would fully invalidate Bitcoin’s bullish outlook at this point. The last time this happened was in December 2021, when a full-blown bear market started that pushed BTC from $40,000 to $16,000 in a year.

The 50W SMA currently stands at $100,000, making this the key level to watch from a technical standpoint. Macroeconomic conditions are still favorable, unless the Fed fully discards the possibility of another rate cut.

Hence, this could be a good opportunity to scoop up BTC while it still trades at $100,000, as this could be the definite bounce that the token needs to start its ascent to $200,000 before the year ends.