Brent Crude Oil Price Update – Short-Term Direction Controlled by Minor Pivot at $57.97

Based on last week’s price action and the close at $57.67, the direction of the December Brent crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at $57.97.
James Hyerczyk
Brent Crude Oil

International-benchmark Brent crude oil finished slightly higher on Friday, but inside the previous day’s range. The price action tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. Underpinning prices were a rise in U.S. equity markets as well as expectations of further stimulus by central banks, which helped ease worries over a global recession.

On Friday, December Brent crude oil settled at $57.67, up $0.33 or +0.57%.

Gains were capped after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) trimmed its global oil demand forecast in a downbeat outlook for the rest of 2019 as economic growth slows.

Daily December Brent Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $55.29 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $64.45. This is highly unlikely, however, since the market still has to overcome major retracement zone resistance.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $60.65 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is $55.29 to $60.65. Its 50% level or pivot at $57.97 was straddled every day last week.

The short-term range is $64.45 to $55.29. Its retracement zone at $59.87 to $60.95 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally at $60.65 on August 13.

The longer-term range is $52.19 to $71.87. Its retracement zone at $59.71 to $62.03 is controlling the near-term direction of the market. The short-term range falls inside this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action and the close at $57.67, the direction of the December Brent crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at $57.97.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $57.97 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move is able to generate enough downside momentum then look for a possible retest of the minor bottom at $55.29. If this fails then over the near-term, the market could work its way into the December 26, 2018 main bottom at $52.19.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $57.97 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the major Fibonacci level at $59.71. This is followed closely by the short-term 50% level at $59.87.

Overtaking $59.87 could trigger a further rally into the minor top at $60.65, followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at $60.95. This level is a potential trigger point for a surge into the major 50% level at $62.03.

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