Brent Crude Oil Price Update – Trading on Bullish Side of 200-Day Moving Average at $66.68

International-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading at their highest level since May 30, driven by worries over a supply disruption as a potential hurricane threatened crude output in the Gulf of Mexico. Escalating tensions in the Middle East are also underpinning prices. Also supporting prices are a drop in U.S. stockpiles which exceeded analyst expectations.

At 03:25 GMT, September Brent crude oil futures are trading $67.25, up $0.24 or +0.35%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Wednesday when buyers took out the previous main top at $66.74. The next potential target is the May 16 main top at $71.61.

Wednesday’s strong price action also took out three retracement levels that had been acting like resistance for nearly two weeks. These levels are new support at $66.59, $65.91 and $65.04.

The next resistance is a Fibonacci level at $67.67. This price is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Most importantly, the market is now trading on the bullish side of the 200-day Moving Average. This could trigger a surge to the upside because it is often used as a buy signal by the hedge funds.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $67.25, the direction of the September Brent crude oil futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $66.59.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $66.59 will indicate the presence of buyers. Holding above the 200-day Moving Average at $66.68 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into the main Fibonacci level at $67.67.

The Fib level at $67.67 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. The daily chart indicates buyers have a clear shot at the next main top at $71.61.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $66.59 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a pullback into 50% levels at $65.91 and $65.04.

Overview

Crossing to the strong side of the 200-day Moving Average is a bullish move. This key level comes in at $66.68 today. Watch for increasing hedge fund buying.