Advertisement
Advertisement
Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast – July 2016
By:
Crude Oil entered the month fighting the $50 range as traders looked at disappointing fundamentals as well as increased production. Earlier this month
Crude Oil entered the month fighting the $50 range as traders looked at disappointing fundamentals as well as increased production. Earlier this month OPEC was able to reach any agreement on quotas. WTI is trading at 48.36 and Brent Oil at 49.80 as Norway looks set for a strike while Nigeria’s production returns to normal.
Output of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude has fallen by an estimated 170,000 barrels per day (bpd) following recent attacks on pipeline infrastructure, industry sources said. Total crude production has fallen more than 500,000 bpd in a country that was once Africa’s biggest oil producer.
Oil retraced gains as the dollar popped up briefly after U.S. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she still expects gradual interest increases this year despite disappointing U.S. jobs growth in May.
The dollar’s gains did not last, but oil traders remained wary because any near-term gains by the greenback would make it costlier for those holding other currencies to buy dollar-denominated crude. The dollar could rally in coming days if speculation on a rate hike grows, traders said.
Oil market has been relatively volatile over the last month, as we have traded in a fairly tight range. When you look at this chart, it’s hard not to notice that the $50 level has offered quite a bit of resistance, and as a result I think that we have a real fight on our hands. The question now will be whether or not we have enough momentum to break out to the upside. If we do, this market could very well find itself going to the $60 level but it unlikely.
Our forecast for July 2016: 47.50 – 49.50
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
WEEKLY RELEASES
This Week in Petroleum
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Heating Oil & Propane Update
Weekly Coal Production
Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures
Coal News & Markets
Natural Gas Weekly Update
| Major Economic Events – July 2016 | ||||
| Date | Country | Name | Volatility | Previous |
| 7/1/2016 | U.S.A | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 51.3 |
| 7/4/2016 | Eurozone | ECB President Draghi’s Speech | 3 | |
| 7/5/2016 | Australia | RBA Rate Statement | 3 | |
| 7/5/2016 | Australia | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 1.75 |
| 7/6/2016 | Eurozone | Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting | 3 | |
| 7/6/2016 | U.S.A | FOMC Minutes | 3 | |
| 7/7/2016 | U.K. | NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) | 3 | 0.5 |
| 7/8/2016 | Switzerland | Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) | 3 | 3.5 |
| 7/8/2016 | U.S.A | Unemployment Rate | 3 | 4.7 |
| 7/8/2016 | U.S.A | Nonfarm Payrolls | 3 | 38 |
| 7/12/2016 | U.K. | Inflation Report Hearings | 3 | |
| 7/13/2016 | Canada | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.5 |
| 7/14/2016 | U.K. | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.5 |
| 7/15/2016 | China | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) | 3 | 6.7 |
| 7/15/2016 | China | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | 3 | |
| 7/15/2016 | U.S.A | Retail Sales (MoM) | 3 | 0.5 |
| 7/15/2016 | U.S.A | Retail control | 3 | 0.4 |
| 7/15/2016 | U.S.A | Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) | 3 | 0.4 |
| 7/17/2016 | New Zealand | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 3 | 0.4 |
| 7/17/2016 | New Zealand | Consumer Price Index (QoQ) | 3 | 0.2 |
| 7/19/2016 | Australia | RBA Meeting’s Minutes | 3 | |
| 7/19/2016 | U.K. | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 3 | 0.3 |
| 7/19/2016 | U.K. | Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 3 | 1.2 |
| 7/21/2016 | Eurozone | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0 |
| 7/22/2016 | Canada | Consumer Price Index Core | 3 | 2.1 |
| 7/22/2016 | Canada | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 3 | 1.5 |
| 7/26/2016 | U.S.A | Durable Goods CORE | 3 | -0.3 |
| 7/26/2016 | U.S.A | Durable Goods Orders | 3 | -2.2 |
| 7/27/2016 | Australia | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 3 | 1.3 |
| 7/27/2016 | Australia | RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY) | 3 | 1.7 |
| 7/27/2016 | Australia | Consumer Price Index (QoQ) | 3 | -0.2 |
| 7/27/2016 | U.S.A | Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement | 3 | |
| 7/29/2016 | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 3 | -0.1 |
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
Did you find this article useful?
Latest news and analysis
Advertisement