BTC Bears to Retarget Sub-$26,000 with More SEC Moves Likely
Key Insights:
- On Thursday, BTC gained 0.63% to end the day at $26,526.
- Binance news provided support, while increased regulatory activity capped the upside.
- The technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$26,000.
On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.63%. Partially reversing a 3.21% fall from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $26,516. Significantly, BTC fell short of the $27,000 handle for the first time since May 27.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early morning low of $26,238. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,880, BTC rose to a mid-afternoon high of $26,845. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,116, BTC eased back to end the day at $26,526.
Binance News and the SEC Left BTC in a Tight Range
It was another busy session on Thursday. US economic indicators supported a Fed pause, with initial jobless claims rising from 233k to 261k. There was increased sensitivity to the latest claims figures following the unexpected rise in US unemployment.
The global financial markets responded to the highest numbers since May 11, with BTC rising to the session high of $26,845.
However, BTC and the NASDAQ Composite Index made modest gains, with investors awaiting the US CPI Report and Fed interest rate decision.
On Thursday, the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 1.02%, with the Dow and S&P 500 ending the day up 0.50% and 0.62%, respectively.
Binance updates also provided support, with the world’s largest crypto exchange announcing that it would only delist ten trading pairs. In an about turn, Binance announced it would only remove BTC and BUSD Advanced Trading pairs.
Binance previously announced the removal of around 100 trading pairs. However, Binance suspended OTC Trading as planned.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Friday session. There are no US economic indicators for investors to consider, leaving the crypto news wires to move the dial.
US lawmaker chatter, SEC activity, and updates from the SEC v Ripple-, SEC v Binance, and SEC v Coinbase (COIN) cases and respective platforms will need consideration.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.10% to $26,500. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,541 before falling to a low of $26,500.
BTC Technical Indicators
Resistance & Support Levels
| R1 – $ | 26,835 | S1 – $ | 26,228 |
| R2 – $ | 27,143 | S2 – $ | 25,929 |
| R3 – $ | 27,750 | S3 – $ | 25,322 |
BTC needs to move through the $26,536 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,835 and the Thursday high of $26,845. A return to $26,750 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,143 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,750.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,228 in play. However, barring an event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$25,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,929 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,322.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bearish signals. BTC sat below the 50-day EMA ($26,724). The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, sending bearish signals.
A move through the 50-day EMA ($26,724) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,835) and the 100-day EMA ($26,898) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($27,143) and the 200-day EMA ($27,165). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($26,724) would leave S1 ($26,228) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.
