BTC Bulls Need a Return to $29,000 as US Jobs Report Tests Buyer Appetite

Key Insights:

• BTC enjoyed a bullish Sunday session, rising by 1.50% to end the day at $28,320.
• SEC silence and a lack of anti-crypto lawmaker chatter supported a session high of $28,521, while Fed Fear left BTC short of $29,000.
• The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $29,000.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.50%. Following a 0.04% gain on Saturday, BTC ended the week up 0.52% to $28,320. BTC held onto the $28,000 handle for the first time in three sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to a mid-morning low of $27,767. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,772, BTC jumped to a late high of $28,521. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,090 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $28,280 to wrap up the day at $28,320.

SEC and US Lawmaker Silence Delivers a BTC Return to $28,500

It was a quiet Sunday session, with trading volumes light during the Easter weekend. With trading volumes on the lighter side, a lack of SEC or US lawmaker scrutiny supported a bullish Sunday session.

News of Coinbase (COIN) considering integrating Bitcoin Lightening Network added further support. On Sunday, CEO and Coinbase co-founder Brian Armstrong responded to a tweet about Bitcoin Lightening Network, saying,

“Lightening is great and something we’ll integrate.”

While the news was BTC positive, Fed Fear capped the upside. The US Jobs Report continued to resonate, with the fall in the US unemployment rate to 3.5% fueling bets of a 25-basis point interest rate hike in May.

According to the CEM FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point interest rate hike jumped from 48.4% (Fri) to 68.3% this morning.

While the SEC and CFTC were silent, regulatory uncertainty and anti-crypto sentiment on Capitol Hill continued to leave BTC at sub-$30,000.

The Day Ahead

There are no US economic indicators for investors to digest during the afternoon session. A lack of stats will leave US regulatory and lawmaker scrutiny to influence.

However, investors should consider Fed chatter that could move the dial on rising bets of a Fed interest rate hike in May.

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case and Binance and Coinbase-related news provide direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.01% to $28,317. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $28,416 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $28,202 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28.638. A move through the Sunday high of $28,521 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $28,957 and resistance at $29,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $29,711.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,884 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$27,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $27,449. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $26,695.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($28,028). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($28,028) would support a breakout from R1 ($28,638) to target R2 ($28,957) and $29,900. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($28,028) would bring S1 ($27,774) and the 100-day EMA ($27,723) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.