BTC Fear & Greed Index Avoids Sub-20 on BTC Support

Key Insights:

• It was a range-bound Thursday session, with Bitcoin (BTC) avoiding sub-$19,000 but failing to break resistance at $19,500.
• Economic indicators and hawkish Fed Chair Powell chatter failed to spook investors that are now resigned to a 75-basis point rate hike this month.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 22/100, though remains a bearish signal.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.19%. Following a 2.61% gain on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $19,322. A range-bound session saw BTC move within a $431 spread. However, BTC did manage to avoid sub-$19,000 for the first time in three sessions.

After a range-bound morning, BTC fell to an early afternoon low of $19,029 before striking a late high of $19,460. BTC left the Major Support and Resistance Levels untested throughout the day.

There were no crypto market events to provide BTC support, leaving BTC in the hands of the NASDAQ 100. US economic indicators and a hawkish Fed Chair failed to sink BTC and the broader market.

US initial jobless claims fell from 228k to 222k while continuing jobless claims rose from 1,437k to 1,473k. There was a muted crypto market reaction to the numbers ahead of the US opening bell. Fed Chair Powell talked of his commitment to fighting inflation. However, there was nothing new from the Fed Chair to spook the markets.

Following Wednesday’s 2.14% rally, the NASDAQ 100 rose by 0.60%, with the markets resigned to a 75-basis point rate hike later this month.

Today, there are no US stats to influence crypto sentiment. The lack of stats leaves Fed chatter to test investor resilience. Talk of a percentage point rate hike could draw a market reaction.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Avoids sub-20, with a Rise to 22/100

Today, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 22/100. BTC delivered a shift in sentiment by avoiding a return to sub-$19,000 despite hawkish Fed Chair Powell chatter. However, the Index remains deep within the Extreme Fear zone leaving the current year low of $17,605 in play.

20/100 remains a key level, with an Index decline to sub-20 likely to bring sub-$18,000 into play. For the bulls, the Index needs a move through 40/100 to support a BTC return to $25,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up by 0.15% to $19,350. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,304 before rising to a high of $19,389.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $19,270 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,512. A bullish morning session would support a breakout from the Thursday high of $19,460.

An extended crypto rally would see BTC test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,701 and resistance at $20,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,132.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,081 into play. An extended sell-off could see BTC test the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,839 and support at the September low of $18,549.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,408.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,624.

The 100-day EMA slid back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish price signals.

Following the Tuesday fallback through the 50-day EMA, sub-$18,000 and the 2022 low of $17,601 remains in view. However, a BTC move through R1 ($19,512) and the 50-day EMA ($19,624) would ease selling pressure. The 200-day EMA sits at $21,009.

Trend Analysis

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the August high of $25,203 and $25,500 to target the June high of $31,956. Avoiding the August low of $19,540 would support a move back towards the 50-day EMA to ease selling pressure.

However, the BTC fall through August and July’s lows to the September low of $18,549 leaves sub-$18,000 and the June low of $17,601 in play.