BTC Fear & Greed Index Climbs to 28/100 Despite NASDAQ Pressure

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.15% to end another range-bound session at $16,435.
• It was a quiet session, with no cues for investors until late into the session.
• However, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 26/100 to 28/100, consolidating the Sunday move into the Fear zone.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.15%. Following a 0.36% loss on Saturday, BTC ended the day at $16,435. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the fifth consecutive day while extending the losing streak to four sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,603. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,642, BTC slid to a late low of $16,410. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,334, BTC found late support to end the day at $16,435.

With the US Thanksgiving holidays ending, there were no crypto news stories to provide direction. Trading volumes remained low, with investors likely taking a wait-and-see approach on FTX and further contagion.

However, investor sentiment towards FTX contagion has improved in recent sessions, which has prevented a return to sub-$16,000. Bets of a December Fed pivot have also been supportive, while regulatory risk will remain a crypto headwind.

This week, updates from the FTX bankruptcy proceedings will need monitoring. News of more assets to make creditors whole would be market positive.

Today, there are no US economic indicators to influence, leaving the NASDAQ Composite Index in the hands of Fed chatter. FOMC member Williams will speak today. Support for a 50-basis point rate hike would provide NASDAQ and BTC support.

However, the NASDAQ mini kicked off the week in negative territory (-83 points), with concerns over the new wave of COVID-19 cases in China influencing.

The Fear & Greed Index Climbs Despite another BTC Loss

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index increased from 26/100 to 28/100. Significantly, the Index consolidated its return to the Fear zone, the first time since the collapse of FTX. The upside came despite BTC moving within a $193 range on Sunday.

BTC avoiding sub-$16,000 for a fifth consecutive session was likely a contributory factor. The latest Index move aligns with market chatter of a bottoming out, supported by subsiding FTX contagion risk.

Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse high of 40/100 (Nov 6) to support a BTC run at $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.24% to $16,396. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,487 before falling to a low of $16,345.

BTC tested the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,362 early on.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $16,483 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,555 and the Sunday high of $16,603. A return to $16,600 would signal a bullish session. However, BTC would need the NASDAQ and friendly FTX-linked news updates to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,676. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $16,869.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,362 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000. If BTC falls through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,290, the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $16,097 should limit the downside.

However, negative FTX-related news or a risk-off fueled sell-off would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,539. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($16,539) and R1 ($16,555) would support a move through R2 ($16,676) to target R3 ($16,867) and $17,000. However, a failure to break out from the 50-day EMA ($16,539) would leave BTC under pressure.