Key Insights:
- On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) ended a two-day mini-winning streak with a 1.16% loss.
- Further reports of China easing lockdown measures failed to provide more support, with US economic indicators weighing on investor sentiment.
- However, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 27/100, reflecting caution ahead of today’s US Jobs Report.
On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.16%. Partially reversing a 4.42% rally from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $16,980. BTC failed to wrap up the day at $17,000 for the second consecutive session.
After a range-bound morning, BTC rose to an early afternoon high of $17,335. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,488, BTC fell to a late low of $16,872. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,659, BTC found late support to end the day at $16,980.
Momentum from Wednesday’s breakout session failed to spill over to the Thursday session. News of the Chinese government easing COVID-19 lockdown measures provided little support, with investors locking in profits from two bullish sessions.
Through the afternoon session, US economic indicators pegged BTC back from a return to $17,000.
US inflation numbers were not soft enough to fuel bets of a Fed pause on rate hikes, with private sector PMIs also weighing on investor sentiment. With the Fed talking about a slower pace of rate hikes, weak economic indicators could reignite fears of a US economic recession.
While BTC saw red, it was mixed fortunes for the US equity markets. The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 0.15%, while the S&P500 slipped by 0.09%.
Today, the market focus will shift to the US Jobs Report. A sharp pickup in wage growth and a jump in nonfarm payrolls could test the Fed pivot theory.
This morning, the NASDAQ mini was down 53.50 points.
The Fear & Greed Index Holds at 27/100 as Investors Await the Jobs Report
Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index held steady at 27/100. A bearish crypto session failed to spook investors.
Today’s US Jobs Report would likely decide the Fed’s next policy move. Investors are pricing in a 50-basis point rate hike. Anything more could see the Index slide back into the Extreme Fear zone.
Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse high of 40/100 (Nov 6) to support a BTC run at $20,000.
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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.09% to $16,995. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $16,965 before rising to a high of $17,044.
Technical Indicators
BTC needs to move through the $17,062 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,253 and the Thursday high of $17,335. A return to $17,200 would signal a bullish session. However, BTC would need US stats and FOMC member commentary to support a breakout from the morning high of $17,044.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $17,525. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,988.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,790 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,599 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,136.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a more bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $16,845. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.
A move through R1 ($17,253) would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($17,489) and R2 ($17,599). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($16,845) would bring S1 ($16,790) and the 50-day EMA ($16,682) into view.
