BTC Remains at Risk of Sub-$29,000 on Spot BTC ETF Uncertainty

Bob Mason
Published: Aug 13, 2023, 09:29 GMT+00:00

After a bearish Saturday, BTC was under pressure this morning. As the SEC v Coinbase battle heats up, the SEC and ETF uncertainty remained headwinds.

BTCUSD - technical analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • BTC extended the losing streak to four sessions on Saturday, falling 0.76% to end the day at $29,653.
  • Spot BTC ETF uncertainty and SEC activity continued to weigh on buyer appetite.
  • The near-term technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to sub-$28,500.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.76%. Following a 0.18% decline on Friday, BTC wrapped the day at $29,653. Significantly, BTC extended the losing streak to four sessions.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.06% to $29,635. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $29,694 before falling to a low of $29,591.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sat above the 50-day ($29,563) and 200-day ($27,355) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA, signaling further gains.

However, looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 48.08 reading reflects bearish sentiment. The RSI signals a fall through the 50-day EMA to bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view. A hold above the 50-day EMA ($29,563) would give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

BTC Daily Chart sends bullish price signals.
BTCUSD 130823 Daily Chart

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. BTC also sits below the 50-day ($29,763) and 200-day ($29,686) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bearish signal. A move through the EMAs would support a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, failure to move through the EMAs would leave sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band in view.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 39.73 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals a return to sub-$28,500 to give the bears a run at the $27,500 – $26,850 support band.

4-Hourly Chart sends bearish near-term price signals.
BTCUSD 130823 4 Hourly Chart

ETF Uncertainty and SEC Activity Leaves BTC at Sub-$30,000

It was a quiet Saturday session, leaving investors to consider the latest SEC moves in the digital asset space.

News of the SEC turning to the public for comment on the ARK Invest spot BTC ETF application continued to test buyer appetite. The SEC has yet to comment on the other spot BTC ETF applications.

Uncertainty surrounding the likely outcomes of the SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase cases remained headwinds.

On Friday, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, crypto lobbyists, and professors called on the Court to dismiss the SEC lawsuit against Coinbase.

The respective parties filed Amicus Curiae briefs. The Cynthia Lummis brief stated,

“Through this case, the SEC seeks primary influence over economic, political, and legal questions under active consideration by Congress and multiple agencies.”

The brief went on to say,

“The SEC’s assertion of authority in this case is out of step with active legislative efforts.”

Notably, the filing also highlighted the inconsistency between the SEC’s treatment of virtually all crypto assets as securities versus other jurisdictions, adding,

“The SEC is not suited to the talks of crafting a holistic regulatory framework for crypto assets, particularly through a judicial enforcement action.”

On Saturday, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded to the Amicus Curiae brief filings, saying,

“TIL amici is the plural of amicus (friend of the Court) – lawyers love their Latin. In any event, thank you so much to the MANY firms who wrote in supporting our case against the SEC.”

The Day Ahead

It will likely be a quiet Sunday session. However, SEC v Ripple-related chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.

US lawmaker chatter and SEC activity would also need consideration after the Amicus Curiae brief filings.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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