Crude Oil Price Forecast: Consolidates as Bears Press Key $62 Support

Crude Oil Consolidates in Tight Range

Crude oil traded lower on Tuesday, consolidating within Monday’s price range and poised to close in the red. Downward pressure remains dominant as price action continues to unfold within a tight, declining consolidation. Dynamic resistance is defined by a short downtrend line across the top of the pattern, which aligns with the 10-Day simple moving average, now at $63.65. At the time of writing, crude traded near the day’s low of $62.42, with the session high capped at $63.48.

Support and Downside Targets

The recent swing low of $62.19, recorded last Wednesday, marks critical near-term support. A decisive break below that level would confirm a continuation of the broader bearish trend. The next lower target is projected in a price zone between $60.66 and $60.60, which aligns with both a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a 78.6% measured target from a falling ABCD pattern. Beyond that, a 100% projection of the same ABCD structure points toward $57.71 as a deeper bearish objective.

Signs of Potential Reversal

Despite the weight of lower targets, the recent consolidation suggests bearish momentum has temporarily stalled. This opens the possibility of a short-term bullish reversal – just a possibility. A small double bottom pattern has developed within the formation, with a breakout signal triggered on a move above last Friday’s high of $64.18. If confirmed, this could pave the way for a test of resistance near the 20-Day moving average, currently at $65.78.

Key Resistance Zone

Adding to the potential significance of that resistance area is an anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) line measured from the June trend low, now at $65.53. This AVWAP served as reliable support several times through the summer until it was broken to the downside on August 6. A rally back into this area would mark a critical test for the bulls, as reclaiming the 20-Day average and AVWAP is essential to shift momentum in their favor.

Outlook

In the near term, crude oil remains trapped between support at $62.19 and resistance at $64.18. A breakout beyond either boundary is required before momentum improves. Until then, traders can expect further consolidation within this range, though the broader bias continues to favor the bears.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.