Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar Forecasts: USD/JPY Slips as Japan Trade Data Looms

Investors Brace for Japan’s Trade Data: Will Exports Sink BoJ Rate Hike Bets?

Japan’s terms of trade will face intense scrutiny as investors assess the impact of US tariffs on demand. The trade data could influence the appetite for the Japanese Yen and USD/JPY trends.

Economists forecast exports to drop 2.1% year-on-year in July, expanding on June’s 0.5% decline. Meanwhile, economists expect imports to plunge 10.1% compared to a 0.2% rise in June.

A sharper drop in exports could show the early effects of US tariffs on demand for Japanese goods. Waning US external demand may impact the Japanese economy, potentially postponing further BoJ rate hikes. Conversely, a surprise increase in exports could support a pickup in economic momentum, boosting bets on a BoJ rate hike. A more hawkish BoJ policy stance would fuel demand for the Yen.

Why do Japan’s trade terms matter to traders? The Japanese economy expanded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter (Q1: +0.1%), a key driver of the pickup in economic momentum. The BoJ is unlikely to cut rates if external demand weakens sharply.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook: Fed Speakers and FOMC Meeting Minutes to Fuel Fed Rate Cut Bets

Later in the session on Wednesday, Fed speakers may drive US dollar demand. Growing support for a September Fed rate cut and further easing in Q4 could push USD/JPY toward the 50-day EMA.

On the other hand, persistent inflation concerns may keep rate cut bets in check and drive the pair above the 200-day EMA. A break above the 200-day EMA would bring the 149.358 resistance level into play.

However, with recent inflation data already fresh in traders’ minds, the FOMC Meeting Minutes may have only a limited impact.

USD/JPY: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Strong Japanese trade data, hawkish BoJ signals, or dovish Fed chatter. These factors could push USD/JPY toward the 50-day EMA, exposing the 145 level.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Weak Japanese trade data, dovish BoJ rhetoric, or hawkish Fed cues. These factors may send the pair above the 200-day EMA and pave the way toward the 149.358 resistance level.

See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.

AUD/USD: Monthly Employment Earnings to Spotlight the RBA

Turning to the AUD/USD pair, investors are bracing for crucial wage data. Wage growth trends are a key consideration for the RBA and monetary policy decisions.

Rising wages may fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. A higher inflation outlook could reduce expectations of a Q4 RBA rate cut, lifting demand for the Aussie dollar.

On the other hand, softer wage growth could dampen demand-driven inflation, supporting further RBA rate cuts.

According to the ABA, total wages and salaries paid by employers rose 0.9% month-on-month in March and by 5.8% year-on-year. The Wage Price Index, a separate wage growth indicator, rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter.

AMP Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver projected a November rate cut and further policy easing in H1 2026, stating:

“We continue to see the RBA cutting rates again in November, February and May taking the cash rate down to 2.85%.”

Will today’s wage data confirm Oliver’s forecast—or surprise markets?

Beyond the data, the People’s Bank of China’s loan prime rate decision could influence AUD/USD trends. Markets predict the PBoC will leave the one-year and five-year LPRs at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. A surprise cut to LPRs could boost domestic demand, potentially improving Aussie trade terms.

For context, Australia has a trade-GDP ratio of over 50%, with roughly one-third of shipments bound for China.

AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Softer wage growth or dovish RBA guidance. These factors could push AUD/USD below the $0.6450 support level, potentially exposing the crucial $0.6400 support level.
• Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Stronger wage growth or hawkish RBA rhetoric. These factors could send AUD/USD above the 200-day EMA, bringing the 50-day EMA into play.

Explore our full AUD/USD analysis, including key trends and trade data, here.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook: Fed Policy Guidance and Rate Differentials

Later today, Fed speeches will draw interest as the Jackson Hole Symposium looms. Recent US inflation-linked data have affected Fed rate cut bets and US-Aussie rate differentials.

Hawkish Fed signals, calling for a delay to interest rate cuts, would widen the rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A wider rate differential could push AUD/USD toward the $0.6400 support level. If breached, the $0.63500 mark would be the next key support level.

Conversely, increased support for a September Fed rate cut and cuts in the fourth quarter would narrow the rate differential. A narrower rate differential may send AUD/USD above the 200-day EMA, paving the way to the 50-day EMA.

Key Market Drivers to Watch Today:

• USD/JPY: Japan’s trade data and BoJ policy guidance.
• USD/JPY and AUD/USD: Fed policy guidance.
• AUD/USD: Aussie wage growth and RBA commentary.

For more in-depth analysis, review today’s USD/JPY and AUD/USD trading setups in our latest reports and consult the economic calendar.