US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Slips as PMI Data Looms, GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to 100.15 in early European trade but held above 100.00, reflecting a cautious market tone. Mixed US labor data and delayed economic releases caused by the government shutdown have left investors without a clear signal on Federal Reserve policy.

With uncertainty elevated, traders are waiting for today’s preliminary S&P Global PMI figures for direction.

Mixed Jobs Data Complicates Fed Outlook

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed stronger-than-expected job creation in September, but the unemployment rate increased and prior months were revised lower.

This combination complicates expectations for a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool now places the probability of a 25 bps cut at roughly 39%, down from 63% last week, highlighting a pullback in confidence as economic signals diverge.

Fed Commentary Helps Contain Dollar Losses

Remarks from Federal Reserve officials helped cushion the dollar. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated her concern about persistent price pressures, while Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson stressed a patient approach ahead of the December meeting. Their comments reduced speculation of imminent easing.

Shutdown-Driven Data Delays Add Pressure

The prolonged government shutdown has postponed key releases such as inflation and employment data, adding another layer of uncertainty for markets.
Even so, the dollar retains underlying support due to its liquidity and safe-haven demand.

What’s Next

Traders will focus on the upcoming US PMI print and additional Fed remarks for clearer signals on the near-term policy path and potential volatility in the DXY.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is easing slightly after failing to hold above the 100.50 resistance zone. On the 4-hour chart, price remains in an established uptrend, supported by a rising trendline that has held since mid-October. The DXY is still trading above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, showing buyers remain in control despite the current pullback.

Recent candles show smaller bodies and fading momentum, which aligns with the RSI dipping from overbought territory toward the mid-60s. This suggests the index is cooling rather than reversing.

If the DXY stays above 99.70 support, buyers may attempt another move toward 100.84. A close below the trendline, however, would signal a deeper correction toward 99.30.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is stabilizing above the $1.3070 area after recovering from this week’s dip, but the pair remains below the descending trendline that has capped upside since mid-November. The 4H chart shows price trading below the 50-EMA, which continues to act as near-term resistance around $1.3105. The recent bounce aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.3079, but momentum still appears limited.

RSI is turning higher from oversold territory, suggesting buyers may attempt another push toward $1.3148. A break above the trendline would strengthen the case for a wider recovery.

If the pair slips back under $1.3060, downside pressure could extend toward $1.3036 and the broader support zone near $1.3011.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is attempting a modest rebound after dipping into the $1.1520 support area, but the broader structure still leans bearish. On the 4-hour chart, price remains under both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, showing that sellers still have directional control. The recent drop also pushed EUR/USD out of its ascending channel, confirming a shift in momentum.

Candles show lower highs and repeated rejections near $1.1565, signalling hesitant buying interest. The RSI has recovered slightly from oversold territory but remains below the mid-50s, indicating limited strength behind the bounce.

If EUR/USD fails to break above $1.1565, the pair risks another move toward $1.1500. A close back above the EMAs would be the first sign of meaningful stabilization.