Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Inside Week Tests 20-Day & 61.8% Support

Friday’s Inside Week Formation

Gold is set to complete a classic inside week Friday, fully contained within last week’s range with a low of $3,998 and high of $4,133. The narrow weekly spread reflects ongoing consolidation and continued downward pressure after last week’s lower-half close. It has formed in the lower half of last week’s range, indicating relative weakness.

Key Daily Support Cluster

Price has spent the entire week testing the critical confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,023 and the 20-day average near $4,041. A short-term uptrend line cuts through the range, adding dynamic context to this high-density support zone.

Weekly Dynamic Backstop

Weekly support arrives at the rising 10-week average near $3,988, mirroring the daily 50-day average at $3,981. Both longer-term benchmarks sit only marginally below current price and remain untested since their August reclaim.

Higher Low Integrity

The $3,998 higher interim swing low established Tuesday stays intact so far. As long as it holds, the uptrend structure from October’s $3,886 base remains valid, bolstered by the recent 10-day/20-day bullish cross and 20-day reclaim.

Bearish Weekly Risk

Last week’s lower swing high at $4,245 and closing in the lower half of the week’s range created a potential shooting star. Validation requires a weekly close below last week’s $3,997 low, which would deliver strong bearish momentum and threaten the 50-day line. However, for active traders, an initial dip may provide a valid signal.

Upside Breakout Scenario

A weekly push above $4,133 targets last week’s high, then the $4,381 October record. Recent momentum slowdown, however, makes extended consolidation beyond this week a realistic possibility.

Outlook

Gold’s inside week places the 20-day/61.8% confluence as the immediate pivot. Hold $3,998–$3,997 to protect the higher-low sequence and favor eventual continuation higher; a weekly close below $3,997 activates the shooting star and targets the untested 50-day near $3,981. Until proven otherwise, dips into this zone remain buyable in the structural bull trend.

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