Natural Gas Price Forecast: Two-Day Consolidation Holds 10-Day – Eyes $4.81 Break

Friday’s Tight Consolidation

Natural gas traded in a narrow band Friday between $4.65 and $4.80, fully contained within Thursday’s range and the upper half of Wednesday’s powerful hammer breakout day. Minor dips below the 10-day average were quickly bought, with price trading in the top half of the day at writing and poised for a strong weekly close above the average.

10-Day Average Defense

Both Thursday and Friday saw brief tests below the 10-day line, yet buyers defended aggressively—Thursday closing on it and Friday set to close above. This repeated protection reinforces the average as reliable short-term support after Wednesday’s decisive reclaim, but not perfect and still subject to fake outs.

Two-Day Support Level

The shared two-day low at $4.65 now marks immediate higher support. Failure here would open slightly lower prices, but the entire consolidation remains nested in the top portion of Wednesday’s bullish candle — a sign of underlying strength.

Hammer Breakout Context

Wednesday’s hammer reversal off the exact 38.2% Fibonacci support triggered a sharp upside breakout through the 10-day average and closed above it, confirming strong demand. A minimum retracement holding with such conviction is particularly bullish in Fibonacci analysis.

Upside Trigger

A decisive push and close above this week’s $4.81 high will activate a continuation of the three-day advance, directly threatening the recent trend high at $4.88. A clean break there then targets the March 2025 peak at $4.95. Moreover, this week is set to end with a weekly hammer candle, providing added support for the bulls is an upside breakout is successful.

Measured New High Targets

Initial objectives on sustained strength sit at $5.00 (127.2% extension of the recent pullback) and $5.14 (161.8% extension). Derived from the short-term structure, these levels carry high probability if bulls stay dominant.

Downside Risk Levels

Key dynamic defense converges at the rising 20-day average near $4.51 with a supporting uptrend line—both aligning near the recent $4.46 swing low for added significance. A decisive drop through this zone would violate the higher-low sequence and question the bull structure, opening prior swing highs around $4.23–$4.21.

Outlook

The two-day consolidation inside Wednesday’s hammer candle keeps buyers in control as long as $4.65–$4.67 holds. A close above $4.81 targets $4.88–$4.95 quickly, with $5.00–$5.14 next. Only sustained trade below the 20-day/$4.51 confluence would shift near-term bias to bearish.

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