BTC Stuck in a Rut with Sub-$29,000 in View on ETF Silence

Bob Mason
Updated: Jul 21, 2023, 02:52 GMT+00:00

BTC found support this morning. However, the Thursday fall to sub-$30,000 reflects ongoing uncertainty toward the SEC and the ETF applications.

BTCUSD - technical analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • On Thursday, BTC joined the broader market in the red, falling 0.38% to end the day at $29,896.
  • US lawmaker chatter failed to offset uncertainty toward the SEC approval of the spot BTC ETF applications.
  • The near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$29,500.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.38%. Reversing a 0.18% gain from Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $29,896. Notably, BTC ended the day at sub-$30,000 for only the second time since July 6.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.24% to $29,966. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $29,822 before rising to a high of $29,992.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD pulling back from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band while hovering at the $30,000 psychological resistance level.

BTC/USD remained above the 50-day ($29,419) and 200-day ($26,765) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and longer term. Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull further away from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.

However, looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 49.49 reading signaled a moderately bearish outlook, signaling a likely fall through the 50-day EMA ($29,419) to bring sub-$29,000 into view.

However, a hold above the 50-day EMA ($29,419) would give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

BTC Daily Chart sends bullish signals.
BTCUSD 210723 Daily Chart

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $30,000 psychological level. BTC/USD sits below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($30,265) but above the 200-day EMA ($29,839), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$29,500. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($30,265) would support a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $31,500.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 43.94 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$29,500. A fall through the 200-day EMA ($29,839) would bring sub-$29,000 into play.

4-Hourly Chart sends bearish near-term price signals.
BTCUSD 210723 4 Hourly Chart

Investors Are in Wait and See Mode as the SEC Mulls ETF Applications

It was a relatively busy session on Thursday. Activity on Capitol Hill continued to grab the news headlines, with Republican lawmakers looking to take the initiative after the SEC v Ripple Court rulings.

On Thursday, the House Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development Chairman Dusty Johnson, Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets Chairman French Hill, and Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson introduced legislation to provide the digital asset space clarity and consistency.

The bill aims to deliver clear guidelines, allowing digital asset developers to innovate and advance currency by adhering to the rules without facing the ever-present threat of lawsuits from regulators.

The Financial Innovation and Technology (FIT) for the 21st Century Act provides a much-needed structure for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the SEC.

Republican Dusty Johnson had this to say about the digital asset space,

“The digital asset space is muddled with regulatory uncertainty, lack of authority, and a lacking framework for core operating principles. The crypto industry wants clarity, and our collaborative bill gives both the CFTC and SEC a seat at the table. Our bill establishes clear principles to ensure financial security and certainty as blockchain technology continues to innovate.”

Last week, Senator Cynthia Lummis touted the Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act, demonstrating the desire among the Republican Party to support innovation in a more structured regulatory environment.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Friday session, with no US economic indicators to distract crypto investors.

However, ETF chatter and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need consideration. Investors should also track SEC and US lawmaker chatter. News of Democratic Party support for either of the Republican bills would provide BTC price support.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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