Can Anything Stop Nvidia? The First $4 Trillion Company

Nvidia has officially become the first ºcompany to cross the $4 trillion market capitalization mark, marking a historic milestone for the chipmaker at the heart of the artificial intelligence revolution. On July 9, Nvidia shares briefly surged past the symbolic threshold before settling just below it, closing nearly 2% higher at around $163 per share. The rally helped lift the Nasdaq Composite to a new record, powered by intense investor enthusiasm for AI-related stocks.

A Tech Titan Transformed by AI

Founded in 1993 by Jensen Huang, Nvidia began as a niche player designing graphics cards for video gamers.

Today, it stands as a symbol of the AI era, having evolved into a dominant force that powers the infrastructure behind generative AI, large language models, and data-intensive applications. Over the last four years, Nvidia’s valuation has skyrocketed from $500 billion in 2021 to just under $4 trillion—a nearly eightfold increase that reflects its central role in the AI hardware ecosystem.

Nvidia’s chips—known as GPUs (graphics processing units)—are now considered the gold standard for AI development. The company’s rapid ascent has turned it into a barometer for the AI industry and Wall Street’s go-to bet on the future of computing.

Nvidia Is More Valuable Than Entire Nations’ Financial Markets

According to LSEG data reported by Reuters, Nvidia’s market value now exceeds the entire publicly listed equity markets of the United Kingdom, and it is worth more than Canada and Mexico’s stock markets combined. Only Apple and Microsoft have come close to similar valuations, with Apple peaking at $3.915 trillion and Microsoft recently valued at $3.742 trillion.

What’s more striking is Nvidia’s outsized influence on U.S. equity benchmarks.

It now accounts for 7% of the S&P 500’s total value, and together with Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, the group represents 28% of the index. This concentration means that investors in passive S&P 500 funds are increasingly exposed to the performance and outlook of the AI sector, whether they realize it or not. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Nvidia is now worth as much as the 216 smallest companies in the S&P 500 combined. This level of concentration is rare in financial history and underscores how the AI trade has become the dominant force in global markets.

What’s Driving Nvidia’s Rally?

The surge in Nvidia’s stock is underpinned by insatiable demand for its AI chips, especially from tech giants racing to build next-generation data centers. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Tesla have all ramped up capital expenditure to secure access to Nvidia’s top-tier processors.

In just two years, Nvidia’s quarterly revenue has exploded from $7.2 billion to $44.1 billion, thanks to this relentless appetite for AI infrastructure. The company’s gross margin exceeds 70%, underscoring its dominant pricing power in a high-demand environment.

Volatility Amid Tariff Risk and Competition

Despite its meteoric rise, Nvidia has faced periods of volatility. Earlier this year, it saw its stock plunge nearly 20% after the launch of DeepSeek, a surprisingly powerful and inexpensive Chinese chatbot developed using only 2,000 Nvidia H800 chips—far fewer than typical AI models require. The development raised questions about whether future AI breakthroughs might be possible with lower-cost infrastructure.

Geopolitical tensions have also played a role.

In April, tariff-related developments under the Trump administration triggered significant volatility across semiconductor stocks. A temporary 90-day tariff pause sparked a rally, only for sentiment to shift again when Trump raised tariffs on China to 125%. While semiconductors were initially exempt, the U.S. Commerce Department hinted that new tariffs on chip imports could arrive within weeks. The Trump administration also blacklisted several Chinese firms on national security grounds, requiring U.S. chipmakers to obtain government licenses for exports.

To mitigate political and logistical risks, Nvidia is reshoring parts of its supply chain. It recently announced plans to build AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S., with more than a million square feet of manufacturing and testing spacededicated to the production of Blackwell chips in Arizona and Texas. Mass production is expected to begin within 12 to 15 months, reflecting a strategic pivot toward supply chain resilience.

Nvidia’s Technical Outlook

Nvidia continues to demonstrate a powerful uptrend on the daily chart. The stock closed at $162.82, up 1.76% yesterday, marking an impressive gain of nearly 89% from its early-April low around $85. This explosive rally reflects the market’s ongoing enthusiasm for Nvidia’s role at the center of the AI revolution, but also raises questions about how long the momentum can hold without a pause.

The Ichimoku Cloud confirms the bullish outlook. Price action remains well above the green cloud, indicating that the trend is not only strong but well-established. The leading span A (the green cloud boundary) is sharply rising above span B, and the price remains comfortably above the Tenkan-sen (red conversion line) and Kijun-sen (blue base line). This alignment reflects bullish market sentiment with no visible signs of weakness in trend direction. The current positioning of the Ichimoku elements also means that any pullback toward the Tenkan-sen or Kijun-sen could be seen as a buying opportunity in a trending market, rather than a signal of reversal if the uptrend movement continues.

Momentum is strong but approaching overheated levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 73.67, indicating overbought conditions. While an RSI above 70 can suggest the stock is overbought in the short term, in strong uptrends like this one, overbought readings can persist for long periods without leading to significant corrections. However, this also implies the stock could enter a consolidation phase soon, or see a modest retracement to digest recent gains.

Nvidia continues to post higher highs and higher lows, maintaining a classic uptrend formation. The resistance at $164.50 around the record high, reached during the session, remains the next level to watch. A confirmed break above this zone could trigger further upside, potentially into price discovery mode, as there is little technical resistance beyond this level. On the downside, there are several near-term support levels. These include $158.10 and $155.00—previous resistance zones that may now serve as support—as well as $152.96, which marks the base of the recent breakout.

While volume is not shown in the chart, the size and shape of the candles—strong, tall bodies with minimal wicks—suggest broad buying interest and conviction among investors. Volatility remains high, and sharp intraday moves should be expected, especially with Nvidia trading near all-time highs and in the spotlight of macroeconomic and policy developments, so external risks could also cloud the near-term outlook.

Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly around tariffs or new export restrictions involving China, could weigh on sentiment and trigger renewed volatility. Another potential catalyst for price movement is the upcoming earnings season. With expectations running high and Nvidia priced for perfection, any sign of slowing momentum or softer forward guidance—even if revenues remain strong—could spark a wave of profit-taking. As earnings approach, investors may become more cautious, especially given how heavily Nvidia’s stock performance is tied to broader AI optimism.

Sources: Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Nvidia’s Website, Investopedia, Barron’s