Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – January 16, 2017 Forecast

February Comex Gold futures are trading higher shortly before the regular session opening. The market is in a position to challenge last week’s high at $1207.20. The buying is pretty strong given the U.S. holiday. This is likely because of concerns over Brexit. We could see some volatility later in the session when Bank of England Mark Carney talks about the U.K.’s exit from the European Union, and especially on Tuesday when U.K. Prime Minister Theresa explains her position on the topic.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1207.20 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1187.50 will change the minor trend to down.

The market is up 20 sessions from the $1124.30 bottom on December 15, putting it in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The main range is $1341.00 to $1124.30. Its retracement zone at $1232.70 to $1258.20 is the primary upside target. A downtrending angle at $1251.00 passes through this zone, making it a valid upside target also.

The intermediate range is $1236.10 to $1124.30. Its retracement zone at $1193.40 to $1180.20 should be considered support.

The short-term range is $1124.30 to $1207.20. If there is a correction then $1165.30 to $1155.40 will become the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price a $1203.30 and the earlier price action, the direction of the gold market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor top at $1207.20.

Taking out $1207.20 with better-than-average volume could trigger an acceleration to the upside with $1232.70 the next target.

The inability to take out $1207.20 will signal the presence of sellers. Trades through $1193.40 and $1187.50 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. The trigger point for an acceleration to the downside is $1180.20, followed by $1165.30 and $1164.30.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1207.20 today. This will tell us if the buying is getting stronger, or if aggressive counter-trend traders are trying to stop the rally.