The minor trend is up. When it turned up last week, momentum also turned up. A trade through 2.9685 will change momentum and the minor trend to down. Taking out the minor top at $3.0725 will signal a resumption of the minor trend.
May Comex High Grade Copper futures are trading higher shortly before the U.S. opening. The rally is being driven by fading concerns over the prospect of a trade war between China and the United States.
Increased demand for risky assets is also helping to underpin the industrial metal. Traders seem to be focusing on this issue rather than the stronger U.S. Dollar which tends to weigh on dollar-denominated commodities like copper.
Traders are also saying that copper is undervalued with several analysts projecting a possible deficit later this year.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending higher.
The minor trend is up. When it turned up last week, momentum also turned up. A trade through 2.9685 will change momentum and the minor trend to down. Taking out the minor top at $3.0725 will signal a resumption of the minor trend.
The resistance is a series of retracement levels at $3.0680, $3.0950 and $3.1190. Overtaking this zone will indicate the buying is getting stronger.
The short-term range is $2.9375 to $3.0725. Its 50% level or pivot at $3.0050 is support. It is also controlling the direction of the market today.
Based on the early price action, the support is $3.0050, the resistance is $3.0725.
Look for the upside bias to continue as long as $3.0050 holds as support. Look for the market to strengthen over $3.0725. This could generate the upside momentum needed to challenge $3.0950 and perhaps take out $3.1190.
The market could weaken under $3.0050 with copper vulnerable to $2.9700 to $2.9685.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.