Based on last week’s close at $3.0695, the direction of the copper market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term retracement zone.
July Comex High Grade Copper futures finished sharply lower last week, pressured by a stronger dollar, rising interest rates and low demand.
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $2.9585 will reaffirm the downtrend.
The minor trend is also down. A move through $3.2180 will change the main trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.
The main range is $3.3040 to $2.9585. Its retracement zone at $3.1315 to $3.1720 is resistance.
The short-term range is $2.9585 to $3.2180. Its retracement zone at $3.0885 to $3.0575 is support.
Based on last week’s close at $3.0695, the direction of the copper market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term retracement zone.
A sustained move under $3.0575 will indicate the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open to the downside so a failure at this level could trigger an acceleration to the downside with $2.9585 the next major downside target.
A sustained move over $3.0885 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to another challenge of the main 50% level at $3.1315. Since the main trend is down, we could see a technical bounce on the first test of this level.
Overtaking $3.1315 could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main Fib level at $3.1720. We could see another technical bounce on the first test of this level.
Look for the start of an acceleration to the upside on a sustained move over $3.1720.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.