Comex High Grade Copper Price Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – Key Level to Watch is $3.0960

March Comex High Grade copper futures finished higher on Friday, but lower for the week. The market also ended the month lower after starting out on a positive note. Looking at the bigger picture, copper was likely driven lower by China’s weak November manufacturing data and increasing copper output. Friday’s rally was fueled by a weaker U.S. Dollar which made dollar-denominated copper more attractive for foreign buyers.

Daily Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing charts. The trend turned down last week when sellers took out the November 17 swing bottom at $3.0550. If the selling persists through this level then we could see an eventual break into a series of bottoms at $2.9455, $2.9250 and $2.9135.

The main trend will change to up on a move through $3.1985.

The main range is $2.9135 to $3.2790. Its retracement zone is $3.0960 to $3.0530. The market straddled this zone last week and settled inside it.

The short-term range is $3.1985 to $3.0510. Its retracement zone is $3.1250 to $3.1425. This zone is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone in an effort to form a secondary lower top. Overtaking this zone will make $3.0510 a new main bottom and indicate a shift in momentum to the upside.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at $3.0925, the direction of the copper market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at $3.0960.

A sustained move over $3.0960 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a rally into the short-term retracement zone at $3.1250 to $3.1425. Overtaking this zone will indicate the buying is getting stronger and that the buyers are gearing up for a test of the $3.1985 main top.

A sustained move under $3.0960 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick break into the main Fibonacci level at $3.0530 and last week’s low at $3.0510.

If $3.0510 is taken out with conviction then look for an acceleration to the downside with the first major target coming in at $2.9455.

A weaker U.S. Dollar will be supportive for copper. A stronger U.S. Dollar should put pressure on copper prices.