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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 10, 2015, 09:48 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil dipped 12 points to 43.76 continuing lower on weak Asian data as traders prepare for The EIA reports this week

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 - Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil dipped 12 points to 43.76 continuing lower on weak Asian data as traders prepare for The EIA reports this week along with OPEC production numbers on Tuesday. Brent Oil fell to 49.19.  Oil prices declined on a fourth day as U.S. producers continued to add rigs amid a global supply gut. Baker Hughes rig count presented a third weekly increase with 6 extra rigs. Weaker demand growth and oversupply continue to push oil prices downward and prolong a bear market for oil.

In the week ended August 7, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States totaled 670, compared with 664 in the prior week and 1,588 a year ago. Including 214 other rigs mostly drilling for natural gas, there are a total of 884 working rigs in the country, up by 10 week over week but down 1,024 year over year. The data come from the latest Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) North American Rotary Rig Count.

U.S. refineries were running at just over 96% of capacity last week, , with daily input of about 17.1 million barrels a day, 313,000 barrels a day more than the previous week. Imports dropped sharply last week to around 7.2 million barrels a day, about 365,000 barrels a day less than the prior week.

The desert kingdom that’s home to both the world’s second-biggest oil reserves and Islam’s holiest sites plans to auction as much as 20 billion riyals ($5.3 billion) on Monday as part of a program to raise a maximum of 100 billion riyals by the end of the year, two people familiar with the matter said last week. The government confirmed last month it already sold 15 billion riyals of bonds in a direct sale to private investors.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

This weekend and today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Jul)

-8.3%

-1.0%

2.8%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Jul)

-8.1%

-8.0%

-6.1%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Jul)

43.03B

53.25B

46.54B

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (Jul)

0.3%

0.3%

0.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Jul)

1.6%

1.5%

1.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (Jul)

-5.4%

-5.0%

-4.8%

 

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Current Account

1.30T

1.41T

1.64T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account n.s.a. (Jun)

0.559T

0.774T

1.881T

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Monthly Report

 

 

 

   

Brent Oil(60 minutes)20150810065401
 
Crude Oil(60 minutes)20150810065328

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Jul)

 

 

10

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Current Conditions

 

64.4

63.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

32.0

29.7

 

 

  CAD

 

Housing Starts (Jul)

 

195.0K

202.8K

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)

 

1.6%

-3.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)

 

0.2%

6.7%

 

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

-2.400M

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

 

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