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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 18, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 17, 2015, 11:03 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil eased 44 cents to 42.67 as traders review news from Iran over the weekend that they have more oil in storage than

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 18, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 18, 2015 – Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 18, 2015 – Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil eased 44 cents to 42.67 as traders review news from Iran over the weekend that they have more oil in storage than expected. Lower growth out of Japan will also weigh on the demand for oil products. Brent Oil eased by 17 cents as OPEC continues to pump record amounts of the black gold. Brent is trading at 49.02.

Japan’s economy, the second biggest in Asia and number three in the world, shrank at an annualized pace of 1.6 percent in April-June as exports slumped and consumers cut back on spending. The slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy, China, and its impact on the region have also heightened the chance that any rebound in growth in July-September will be modest, analysts say. The weak economic data comes at a time when production around the world remains at or near record highs.

Chinese companies are increasingly trading in global commodities to secure long-term supplies and exert more influence over pricing mechanisms. As one of the world’s largest consumers of commodities such as agricultural products, metals, minerals, oil and gas, China has historically purchased these commodities from international markets at unfavorable prices due to lack of participation in international commodity exchanges, which set commodity prices.

But that is now changing as increasingly, Chinese banks, securities firms and commodity trading firms are joining international commodity exchanges, mainly to buy and sell commodities on behalf of their clients in China. This in turn helps them hedge against future price fluctuations.

For example, if a Chinese oil refinery knows the quantity of crude it requires in a year’s time to meet production targets, it can purchase Brent Crude on the US-listed Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE, at a price determined by the futures market. By receiving a locked-in price, the firm is able to accurately determine its business model and be certain of profit margins.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

-0.4%

-0.5%

1.1%

   

  JPY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q2)

-1.6%

-1.9%

4.5%

   

  EUR

 

Trade Balance (Jun)

26.4B

 

18.8B

 

 

  USD

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

 

5.00

3.86

 

 

  CAD

 

Foreign Securities Purchases (Jun)

 

 

-5.45B

   

 

Brent Oil(60 minutes)20150817065923
Crude Oil(60 minutes)20150817065851

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (Jul)

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Building Permits (Jul)

 

1.232M

1.337M

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

 

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