Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – July 1, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Jun 30, 2015, 11:40 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil recovered 42 cents after declining steadily on Monday and remains well below the $60 price level. Brent Oil added

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – July 1, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil recovered 42 cents after declining steadily on Monday and remains well below the $60 price level. Brent Oil added 82 cents as traders bought up the cheaper commodity. Brent oil is trading at 62.83. Crude oil prices fell despite the consensus of Greece entering a deal with the European creditors. Greece’s credit default might impact the European demand for crude oil. The recent meetings gave signs that Greece might enter a deal with the European creditors. This positive cue could support crude oil demand and crude oil prices.

In the US, the EIA reported that crude oil stocks fell by 4.9 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending June 19, 2015. In contrast, gasoline stocks rose by 680,000 barrels over the same period. They continue to put downward pressure on crude oil prices. The next EIA report is expected to release on Wednesday, July 1, 2015.

Prices fell as diplomats in Vienna came close to clinching a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program, which may boost oil supplies from the country if international sanctions are lifted. “Commodities are under pressure today due to rising risk aversion,” Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG, said by phone from Frankfurt. “More risky assets are being sold. You see it in the stock markets and likewise in energy prices and metals prices.”

The Bloomberg Commodities Index fell 0.7 percent to 100.42 by 12:16 p.m. London time. The gauge still headed for a 2.3 percent gain this quarter, the most since the first three months of 2014. The measure is down 3.7 percent this year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Building Consents (MoM) (May)	0.0%		-0.9%
AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	-2.3%		0.6%
NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (Jun)	-2.3%		15.7%
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM)	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%
EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM)	0.5%	0.2%	1.3%
CHF	KOF Leading Indicators (Jun)	89.7	93.5	92.7
EUR	German Unemployment Rate	6.4%	6.4%	6.4%
GBP	Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1)	2.0%	1.8%	1.7%
GBP	Current Account (Q1)	-26.6B	-23.8B	-28.9B
GBP	GDP (YoY) (Q1)	2.9%	2.5%	2.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Jun)	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (May)	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Canada – Canada Day
	New Zealand – Queen’s Birthday
JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers		12	12
JPY	Tankan Large Non-		22	19
CNY	Manufacturing PMI (Jun)		50.3	50.2
CNY	HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun)		49.6	49.6
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI		51.9	51.9
GBP	Manufacturing PMI (Jun)		52.5	52.0
USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment		218K	201K
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)		53.1	52.8