Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – July 2, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil fell 74 cents to trade at 58.73 as the greenback gained momentum. Brent Oil dipped 56 cents to 63.03. Prices were dragged down by an increase in the production by the US and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), prompting oversupply concerns.

Oil weighed down following the report released by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which revealed that there is an increase in the US crude oil inventories.

The prospect of Iranian oil exports reaching an oversupplied market also led to a drop in prices.  Iran is holding discussions with world powers in Vienna with regard to their nuclear deal, for which the deadline has been extended until 7 July.

Petromatrix oil analyst Olivier Jakob told the news agency: “Greece is an additional risk factor, but I am more focused on Vienna than on Athens right now.”

Other currency holders could find it expensive to buy commodities like oil due to a stronger dollar value, which in turn would weigh oil prices. A survey by Reuters on Tuesday revealed that OPEC supply increased to a three-year high of 31.60 million barrels per day last month.

In the United States, crude production rose 9,000 barrels a day to 9.701 million barrels a day in April, the highest since May 1971, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in monthly data released Tuesday.

Crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week to 468.9 million, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.000 million barrels.

However, demand was also up with refinery crude runs rising by 77,000 barrels per day, API data showed.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jul 01 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Oct 2020 Bobl

Jul 02 10:30 Spain Auctions 3.75% Oct 2018, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bonos, plus 1.6%

Apr 2025 Obligation & 1% Nov 2030 Euro-I/L Obligation

Jul 02 11:10 France Eur 7.0-8.0bn 0.5% May 2025, 4.75% Apr 2035 & 4.50% Apr

Jul 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 2.0% Jul 2020 Gilt

Jul 02 18:00 US Details 3/10 year notes, plus 30-year bond

Jul 07 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Jul 07 11:30 UK Conventional Gilt auction

Jul 07 19:00 US Auctions 3-year notes

Jul 08 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Jun 2017 Schatz

Jul 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Jul

Jul 08 19:00 US Auctions 10-year notes

Jul 09 19:00 US Auctions 30-year bonds