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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 16, 2015, 11:53 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil gained 38 cents to trade at 41.12 giving back some of its early morning gains as markets seem to be less panicked

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 - Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained 38 cents to trade at 41.12 giving back some of its early morning gains as markets seem to be less panicked than expected. Brent Oil  added 30 cents to 44.76. “Copper and crude oil prices are likely to remain under pressure short-term,” ANZ bank said in a morning note today.

The bank said that oil prices would also be under pressure from fundamentals.

“Surprisingly, US drillers are putting rigs back to work in the oil fields after more than two months. Baker Hughes reported the US oil rig count gained by 2 to 574,” ANZ bank said today, but added that “we believe the low oil price environment will lead to a decline in drilling activity in the coming weeks.”

The rise in crude oil futures was largely in tandem with a firming trend in Asian trade where it climbed today on geopolitical tensions sparked by the deadly terror attacks in Paris but analysts said a global crude supply glut is likely to restrict any gains.

French warplanes pounded the Islamic State group’s de facto capital in Syria on Sunday in retaliation for the carnage in the French capital claimed by the jihadists, sparking fears of escalating tensions in the oil-producing but politically volatile Middle East.

Commodity producers are facing a perfect storm: softening demand from a slowing China, a huge expansion in supply of commodities such as iron ore and oil, and a US dollar that is surging on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin lifting interest rates next month.

Because minerals and energy are typically priced in US dollars, when the greenback rises, commodity prices fall, to even out the demand-supply equilibrium of the market. Mining metals and crude oil were hammered in North American and European trading at the end of the week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Core Retail Sales (QoQ)

1.0%

1.4%

0.0%

   

  NZD

 

Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)

1.6%

1.3%

0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

-0.8%

-0.2%

-1.2%

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)

1.1%

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (MoM) (Oct)

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Oct)

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

   

 

crude oil

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  GBP

 

CPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

  GBP

 

PPI Input (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.2%

0.6%

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Current Conditions

 

55.5

55.2

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

6.0

1.9

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

1.9%

1.9%

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

  USD

 

CPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.2%

-0.2%

 

  USD

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

 

 

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