Crude Oil Forecast August 13, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market tried to rally during the course of the session on Wednesday, testing the $44 level for resistance. That being the case, the market pulled back in order to form a bit of a shooting star. This of course is a very negative sign, and we feel that the market is going to head down to the $42 level given enough time. The $42 level was previously massively supportive, as we bounced from that level to the $60 handle a few months ago. However, market memory is what we are focusing on here. With this, we would anticipate seen some type of supportive move, but we don’t have it yet. Short-term sellers may get back into this market again and again, but quite frankly we believe that there isn’t much room at this point in time. Focus on selling short-term rallies, but be mindful of the $42 support barrier.

Brent

The Brent market as you can see went back and forth during the day on Wednesday, bouncing between the $49 level on the bottom, and the $50 level on the top. With this, we did up forming a fairly neutral candle but it appears that it’s only a matter time before we will break out of this range. We believe that this market should go a bit lower, but it’s probably only a matter of time before the buyers get involved. After all, the Light Sweet Crude market looks like it’s getting fairly close to massive support, so we feel that a bounce could be coming. Nonetheless, we are sellers of short-term rallies out this market should continue to have plenty of bearish pressure upon it. We have not whatsoever in going long yet, at least not until we get above the $55 level, which of course is something that doesn’t look very likely to happen anytime soon. It is the end of the summertime, but generally we do not have a lot of liquidity in the marketplace during these couple of weeks. With this, we will continue to focus on short-term charts.