Crude Oil Forecasts – Middle East Risk Keeps Prices Choppy

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has initially fallen a bit against the backdrop of questions about the Middle East but turned right back around to show signs of life again and now looks like it is trying to defend the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is a technical indicator that a lot of people will be watching closely, and it is worth noting that the 200-day EMA sits just below there as well and obviously is an indicator that a lot of people watch over the longer term.

As we head into the weekend, it’s difficult to guess as to what happens on Saturday or Sunday, but clearly the markets are very concerned about things going forward between the Americans and the Iranians, and I think the only thing that you can probably count on is going to be choppiness.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent markets have been all over the place as well, as we tested the $85 level, the 200-day EMA, and then turned around and bounced. As we sit right now, it looks like we are hanging around the 50-day EMA, an indicator that a lot of people will be watching closely.

Ultimately, you have to assume this is a market that is going to be moving on the latest headlines as well. With that being the case, traders will continue to see a lot of questions asked, but I think over the longer term, what you’re really looking at here is a market that’s trying to determine what the next political move is going to be, and that’s almost impossible in this scenario. I expect volatility. It does not surprise me that we’re just hanging around the moving averages heading into the weekend.

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