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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 13, 2012 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil added over 1.00 to trade today, to tip at 87.00. US stimulus hopes and indications of Chinese economic growth

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 13, 2012 Forecast
Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 13, 2012 Forecast
Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis December 13, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil added over 1.00 to trade today, to tip at 87.00. US stimulus hopes and indications of Chinese economic growth revival supported the sentiments. Crude oil is trading with a positive bias on NYMEX and on ICE after OPEC’s production declined in November closer to its oil output target of 30 million barrels per day. Prior to the OPEC meeting and weekly EIA crude oil inventory report, WTI as well as Brent crude oil rose 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, the IEA has raised global oil demand forecast for 2012 and 2013 by 70000 bpd to 89.66 million bpd and 110000 bpd to 90.52 million bpd respectively.

US Dollar Index (DX) declined 0.4 percent. The index traded in the negative territory due to rise in the risk appetite of the market participants on optimism that US Federal might announce stimulus package to boost the economy, which made the weakened commodity an attractive buy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 12

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Industrial Production (YoY) 

8.2%

 

4.5% 

 

-0.7% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9% 

 

1.9% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.0% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

ZAR

 

 

South African CPI (MoM) 

0.20%

 

0.20% 

 

0.60% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.8%

 

1.9% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-3.0K

 

7.0K 

 

6.0K 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.4%

 

0.2% 

 

-2.3% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-0.9%

 

-0.5% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

 

MXN

 

 

Mexican Industrial Production (YoY) 

3.6%

 

3.6% 

 

2.3% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

10-Year Note Auction 

 

 

 

 

1.675% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Federal Budget Balance 

 

 

-150.0B 

 

-120.0B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 13

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

-0.3% 

-0.1% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-16 

-21 

Dec. 14

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

45.0 

44.5 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

47.2 

46.8 

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.2% 

2.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 13 01:30 Japan 

Dec 13 09:30 Spain 

Dec 13 10:10 Italy  

Dec 13 10:30 UK 

Dec 13 16:00 US 

Dec 13 18:00 US 

Dec 14 11:00 Belgium 

Dec 14 15:30 UK 

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