Crude oil markets continue to see buyers, as we are trying to price in geopolitical concerns, with a strike against Iran being possible. Because of this, the supply and demand situation is being ignored at the moment.
The light sweet crude oil market has found itself up about 2% pretty quickly during the day here on Thursday, as crude oil continues to get a bit of a boost. While the momentum of course is very impressive, the question then remains, sooner or later, when we will have our supply and demand question.
There is a little bit of geopolitical risk out there and of course, with US assets moving into the Middle East, there are concerns about a strike against the Iranians which, I believe, just as the last couple of times, you only have to go back to the middle of June to find this, generally ends up offering a nice shorting opportunity.
$66.00 is an area that I think will be very difficult to break and with the massive efficiency coming out of the United States, now producing 13.5 million barrels, I think at this point we are starting to see a potential short. We will just have to wait and see how we act around $66.00.
The Brent markets are very much the same as well as we have the $70.00 level offering a significant amount of resistance. At this point in time, I think you have to look at that as a potential short-term ceiling.
If we could break above $70.00, that will change everything just as it could in the light sweet crude oil market on a move above its barrier, but right now I think we’re getting to the point where we’re trying to find the ceiling. I do think it’s a little early to start talking about shorting, but I also recognize that the supply will eventually overwhelm the demand. Again, I think most of this comes down to geopolitics.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.