Crude Oil Price Forecast: Breaks Bull Wedge, Eyes $67–$68 Resistance Zone

Crude Oil Breaks Out of Bull Wedge

Crude oil confirmed a bullish breakout this week with Thursday’s rally to $65.64, marking a new 17-day closing high. The breakout from a falling bull wedge pattern was reinforced by consecutive closes above the 50-Day moving average, the first such occurrence since early August. Importantly, Wednesday’s session also tested support at the 10-Day and 20-Day averages, with the 10-Day line on track to cross above the 20-Day — a short-term bullish signal.

Key Levels Confirm Strength

Momentum improved as crude moved above the interim swing high of $64.90, triggering a bullish reversal and back test confirmation. The next upside test sits at the lower swing high of $66.52, which remains a key barrier within the broader pattern of declining swing highs and lows. On the weekly timeframe, a wide range outside candle has formed, with prices holding near the highs of the week. A weekly close above $64.90 would confirm a two-week breakout, while a close above $64.59 would mark the strongest finish in eight weeks.

Upside Targets in Focus

If momentum persists, crude oil is positioned to challenge higher resistance. The 200-Day moving average at $67.30 is a natural upside target, aligning closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $68.19. A decisive breakout above $66.52 would further strengthen the bullish case, potentially unlocking a more extended recovery phase. For now, the breakout has shifted momentum in favor of buyers, and the broader market structure suggests volatility could expand sharply following this wedge resolution.

What to Watch Next

The key confirmation point remains Friday’s weekly close. A close in the upper half of the week’s range, particularly above $64.90, will solidify the bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to hold above breakout levels could raise the risk of another consolidation period. Still, early signals point to buyers regaining control, with the top boundary of the declining trend channel providing the upper range of near-term potential.

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