Crude Oil Price Forecast: Breaks Key Levels, Targets $67 Resistance Zone

Break Above Swing High and 50-Day Average

Crude oil extended higher on Tuesday, reaching $66.52 before pausing. The advance showed strength as price exceeded the prior swing high of $65.77 while also breaking above the anchored VWAP at $65.48. The 50-Day moving average at $66.15 and a key downtrend line were also surpassed intraday, both bullish developments. While crude may not close firmly above the 50-Day average, holding the breakout above the trendline signals improving momentum and raises the probability of testing higher levels. A confirmed daily close above $65.77 would validate the breakout and further strengthen the short-term bullish case.

Targets from VWAP and ABCD Projection

Two technical measures align near $67.16, creating a key area to monitor. First, an anchored VWAP level from the January swing high falls around that price. Second, a 100% measured move projection for a rising ABCD pattern also targets $67.16. Together, these levels provide a natural upside reference. A decisive daily close above the 50-Day average would further open the door toward the 200-Day moving average, now at $67.78. The long-term average coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $67.84, reinforcing this price zone as potentially significant resistance.

Bullish Wedge Breakout Signal

The intraday move above the trendline also represents the first bullish signal for a breakout of a falling wedge pattern. The upper boundary of this wedge has now been breached, with the lower boundary tied to the recent swing low of $62.19. If the breakout is confirmed with continued strength, it suggests potential pattern-based targets at $71.33, marking a prior lower swing high, and at $78.44, which is the origin of the wedge. While these levels are not guaranteed, the wedge structure highlights the possibility of sustained upside momentum should key resistance levels be overcome.

Weekly Breakout and Higher Resistance Zones

On the weekly timeframe, a bullish breakout also triggered as crude moved above last week’s high of $65.77. Beyond the $67.78–$67.84 resistance zone, the next notable confluence sits near $69.37. This area is defined by the overlap of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% measured projection of the rising ABCD pattern. This makes $69.37 a likely cap for near-term strength. If surpassed, however, bullish momentum would be confirmed as robust, leaving the door open to higher wedge targets over the coming weeks.

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