Crude oil markets have fallen again during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a little bit of exhaustion head into the marketplace.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the session on Thursday, but gave back gains rather quickly, showing signs of hesitation and exhaustion. After all, we have seen a massive move to the upside, and it would have been a “bear market bounce”, showing signs of the market is overdone. That being said, the market is likely to revisit the lows, but I don’t know whether or not we break down below there. After all, the market does tend to trade in a range during the summer, and we may be finding that range.
The market of course continues to be noisy and I think at this point in time it’s likely that we would see a lot of choppiness that we have to deal with. Ultimately, I do think that the 50-Day EMA would be a bit of the ceiling, but if we break above there then it’s likely that we could go looking to the 200-Day EMA, which is probably the top of the summer range.
Brent markets initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session and then start falling again. Ultimately, Brent is going to have the issue with the idea of a global slowdown, and a lack of demand in general. Keep in mind that the demand for crude oil is rather weak as it is obvious that we are going to continue to see a lot of concerns around the world, and as oil is the “lifeblood” of the economy, if there is no real momentum for the global economy, there will be a lot less demand for crude.
I do think at this point in time, the market is going to end up being very choppy, and I think it remains a “fade the rally” type of situation. That’s been the case for a while, and now that we had a massive turnaround and major bear market bounce, it makes sense that gravity comes back into the situation, as it’s only a matter of time before the momentum causes issues again. While I don’t necessarily think that the market is going to break a fresh, new lows, it’s obvious that the market does not have the longer-term momentum to continue upward movement for a significant amount of time.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.