Crude oil markets pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Wednesday to dip below the short-term support levels, only to find buyers again.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Wednesday to show signs of negativity, but almost immediately we have seen buyers jump back into the market to try to support crude oil. I think this is a very interesting inflection point for the crude oil markets, as there are multiple things going on at the same time.
The first thing that catches my attention is the fact that we are at the end of the year and liquidity probably continues to be an issue. That being said, we also have to keep in mind that if the Federal Reserve is in fact going to loosen monetary policy in 2024, a lot of traders extrapolate that out to the idea of more crude oil demand as it is likely we will continue to see economic expansion based on liquidity.
For many of the same reasons, I think that Brent is also going to continue to see buyers on dips. We have certainly seen that play out during the day on Wednesday, and of course the fact that the $80 level is right here as well certainly makes a certain amount of sense as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
It is probably worth noting that both of these markets have recently tested a major low and bounced quite sharply, so I do think that we have found a floor in the market. I presently like the idea of buying pullbacks in both markets, but I also recognize this time of year could also feature a certain amount of short covering, so you can only read so much into the bullish pressure. I have no interest in selling oil anymore, but I would like to see some type of multi-day pullback in order to get involved in what I think is going to be a longer-term trade for a significant part of the year going into 2024. This is especially exacerbated by the Houthis and their attacks on the Red Sea, which obviously has a major influence on shipping of crude oil.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.