Crude Oil Price Forecast: Eyes Counter-Trend Rally as Bulls Target Key Resistance Zones

One-Day Bullish Reversal Signals Upside Momentum

Crude oil rallied strongly on Thursday after hitting a fresh bear trend low of $62.19 on Wednesday. The rebound pushed prices above Wednesday’s high of $63.63 and reached an intraday peak of $64.08, triggering a one-day bullish reversal pattern. If prices secure a daily close above $63.63, that reversal will be confirmed, leaving oil positioned for further upside – even if only within the context of the broader downtrend.

Resistance from Prior Price Zones and Key Averages

The short-term path higher is challenged by a resistance band between $64.46 and $65.58, which includes a prior monthly low turned resistance at $65.46. Clearing $65.58 could bring the next wave of technical tests: the 20-Day moving average at $66.35, the 50-Day moving average at $67.67, and the 200-Day moving average sitting near $68.10. These levels are likely to attract selling pressure if the rally extends.

Downside Targets Defined by Fibonacci Confluence

On the downside, the next key support zone is clustered near $60.78–$60.66 — an area defined by a 78.6% ABCD pattern (purple) downside projection and a matching 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This target gains significance after a recent bearish crossover, where the 20-Day moving average fell below the 50-Day moving average, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend bias.

AVWAP Flip from Support to Resistance

An anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) line (light blue), drawn from April’s trend low, played a critical support role through late June and most of July. After holding firm during multiple pullbacks, this line was decisively broken on August 6. From a technical perspective, such a break often turns prior support into resistance. Should crude rally back to this line, sellers may re-engage unless a decisive breakout invalidates the bearish flip and sparks renewed buying momentum.

Outlook: Rally Faces an Uphill Battle

While Thursday’s gain introduces short-term bullish momentum, the move remains a counter-trend rally until crude decisively reclaims resistance above $65.58 and sustains strength through the moving average barriers toward $68. Failure to close above $63.63 would suggest that bullish momentum is fading, with renewed focus shifting toward the $60.70 support zone.

For now, traders should treat this as a tactical rally within a structurally bearish market — one that could provide an opportunity on both sides, depending on whether price action confirms a breakout or stalls at resistance.

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