Crude Oil Price Forecast: Fails 50-Day Breakout Again – $57.21 Under Threat

Continued Weakness Tuesday

Crude oil extended its decline Tuesday, printing a low of $58.17 at writing while remaining pinned near session lows under firm seller control. The lower daily high formed exactly at a critical short-term resistance cluster combining the falling channel top, the 10-day moving average, and the 20-day average—reinforcing bearish momentum after last week’s brief push above the 50-day average reversed sharply on Monday.

Failed 50-Day Breakout

The 50-day average remains the defining dynamic resistance for the downtrend. Last week’s bullish breakout and daily close above it has now fully failed, producing accelerated selling and continuation of the tight falling channel that began after October’s trend high. Failed breakouts routinely trigger sharp moves in the opposite direction, and crude oil exhibited exactly that behavior across daily and weekly timeframes.

Immediate Downside Targets

Price now threatens another test of the key November higher low at $57.21. A decisive break there exposes the October low at $56.41 and opens a broader support band down to April’s $55.23 trend low. All timeframes currently align bearish until proven otherwise.

Weekly Confirmation Turning Bearish

A daily close below last week’s low of $58.36 would confirm weekly bearish reversal and erase the one-week bullish signal triggered earlier—another classic failure-to-follow-through scenario that typically accelerates the original trend, in this case lower.

Bullish Reversal Requirements

The bearish picture only begins to shift with a daily close above Tuesday’s lower high of $59.22 and then the 20-day average near $59.14. A sustained reclaim of the 50-day average—currently $59.86—would be required before any credible upside case re-emerges, though yesterday demonstrated even a daily close above that level offers no guarantee without further confirmation.

Outlook

Crude oil has flipped from brief hope to clear seller dominance as multiple failed breakouts across timeframes drive price straight toward $57.21 and potentially the October low. Respect of the falling channel and continued resistance at the 50-day/20-day cluster keep bears in full control; only a convincing push and hold above $59.86 would begin to challenge that narrative.

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