Crude Oil Price Forecast: Retreats From $65.77 High as Resistance Holds

Crude Oil Retreats from Monday High

Crude oil turned down from Monday’s high of $65.77 on Tuesday, falling to a three-day low of $63.78 and establishing a lower daily high and lower low. Sellers remain in control, with trading hovering near the day’s lows. A close below the prior two-day low at $64.04 would confirm the bearish implications of the decline. Notably, the neckline of a small double bottom pattern that triggered last Thursday at $64.18 also failed as support today.

Key Support and Moving Averages

Support on Tuesday appeared near the 10-Day moving average, now at $63.79. This line should be monitored closely, as it had defined a breakout of a small trendline last Thursday following several days of testing as resistance. Holding above the 10-Day could generate a short-term bounce in crude oil. Resistance remains significant at the 20-Day average near $65.00 and at the long-term anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) of $65.51. This AVWAP had provided prior support before breaking on August 6, adding weight to the current resistance zone.

Resistance and Trendline Considerations

For buyers to regain control, crude oil would need a sustained move above this week’s high. Even if $65.77 is exceeded, resistance could emerge from the downtrend line and the 50-Day moving average, now at $66.84, marking the first test of that line since its breakdown on August 4. Further dynamic resistance exists near the 200-Day moving average at $67.88, representing the potential upside if early-week strength continues.

Downside Targets Remain in Focus

If the 10-Day moving average fails to hold, the bearish trend may resume toward the next support zone near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $60.66. This level aligns with prior trend dynamics and could act as a magnet for price action if selling pressure intensifies. For now, the trend favors sellers, with rallies likely encountering resistance until a confirmed breakout above key levels occurs.

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