Crude Oil Price Forecast: Sellers in Control With New Long Term Trend Low

Tuesday’s Breach of Key Lows

Crude oil extended its bearish move Tuesday to a slightly new trend low of $55.00 per barrel, dipping marginally below the April long-term trend low at $55.23. Sellers remain firmly in control at writing, with the price of crude lingering near the session low. Although confirmation may not come today, a daily close below $55.23 would lock in the breakdown and validate intensified selling pressure.

Intermediate and Long-Term Implications

The decline also triggered a new intermediate trend low earlier Tuesday on the move below October’s $56.41, with confirmation awaiting a daily close beneath that level. Breaching the 2025 low—nearly a five-year bottom—signals probable resumption of the broader long-term downtrend that originated from the 2022 peak at $131.31. Further bearish closes, beginning with daily and potentially weekly settlement below $55.23 this Friday, would solidify that view and position crude for its lowest daily and weekly closes since the 2022 downtrend commenced.

Short-Term Bounce Scenario

If support emerges near current lows and sparks a bounce, the falling 20-day average at $58.58 stands as the first logical upside objective. Last week delivered three consecutive daily highs testing resistance right around that average—following over a month of sideways consolidation relative to it—making it a clear dynamic barrier for any near-term recovery attempt. Slightly lower lies the prior interim swing low at $57.21 as an initial pullback target.

Deeper Downside Projection

A simple 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the most recent upswing points to a primary lower target at $49.66, aligning closely with an approximate 21-week consolidation range from 2020 and offering a realistic destination if the breakdown fully confirms. The alignment of these measurements adds weight to $49.66 as a potential termination point for the current leg lower.

Outlook

Crude oil has crossed critical multi-year thresholds with the dip below $55.23 and $56.41, placing the long-term downtrend back in the driver’s seat and raising the odds of accelerated selling toward $49.66. A daily or weekly close beneath $55.23 cements the bearish shift; any bounce faces immediate resistance at $57.21–$58.58, while continued weakness near current lows keeps sellers dominant until proven otherwise.

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