Crude Oil Price Forecast: Wedge Breakout Sparks Momentum Shift Above 20-Day Average

Crude Oil Bulls Take Back Control

Crude oil flipped the script on Tuesday. What looked like a bearish breakdown last week has now morphed into a sharp bullish reversal. Prices surged to a nine-day high of $64.90, erasing the downside implications of a failed bear flag. False moves often fuel fast moves, and crude’s rally fits that mold. A strong close above $64.36 would confirm the breakout reversal and mark a decisive shift in momentum.

Reclaiming Key Averages and Breaking Patterns

The bulls scored two technical victories today. First, they reclaimed the 20-Day moving average at $64.02 — a level that has repeatedly capped rallies in recent weeks. More importantly, crude broke out of a falling wedge pattern at the same time it cleared the short-term range. Wedge breakouts are often early warning signs that a trend is turning, and this one is flashing in favor of higher prices.

Eyes on the 50-Day Test

The next battle zone lies near the 50-Day average, currently $65.41. This level carries added weight thanks to an anchored VWAP from the April 9 low, sitting at the same price. A close above this dual resistance would further validate the reversal, opening the way for a push toward $66.53 — a swing high that aligns with the 50% retracement of the recent decline. Beyond that, the 200-Day average at $67.48 marks a logical upside target.

Failed Breakdown Fueling Bullish Energy

Failed bearish setups can be powerful fuel for rallies, and crude’s current bounce is a textbook example. Shorts caught on the wrong side may be forced to cover, providing additional buying pressure. With momentum shifting, the top boundary of the broader falling channel comes back into play as a potential medium-term target.

Weekly Chart Strengthens the Signal

The reversal is not just a daily story — it’s showing up on the weekly chart too. A weekly bullish reversal highlights stronger demand on a larger scale and improves the probability of further gains. While upside follow-through is essential, the weight of evidence now tilts bullish, with multiple signs pointing to higher prices ahead.

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