Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Attempting to Break Resistance

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has fallen a bit in the early hours here on Friday as we are sitting near the 50-day EMA and the downtrend line that have both been so important for so long.

With that being the case, I think you have to look at this as a market that is on the precipice of some type of decision. If we can break out to the upside, the $60 level could be targeted. Anything above there, then oil starts to get interesting.

Brent Technical Analysis

For what it is worth, the Brent market is in the process of trying to break out. We will have to wait and see whether or not that actually has any follow-through to it. The market could break out to the $65 level. We have the 50-day EMA and a downtrend line both coming into the picture right here.

Right now, we do have a structural oversupply of crude oil in the markets. The indication so far from the IEA is perhaps 3 to 4 million barrels per day in excess of crude oil. OPEC+ is trying to manage its quotas, but non-OPEC production, particularly from the Western Hemisphere, continues to flood the market, dampening the effect of any cuts.

Global inventories have been building through the latter part of 2025. Prices dropped right along with it, and now, at this point, it looks very much like a market that, even if we do rally a bit, is probably somewhat limited. In the case of Brent, you might be looking toward $65 or so as your next barrier. It has been a fade in the rally market for some time, and I am not quite ready to give up on that strategy, but we will see how this closes out for the week.

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