Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Oil Continues to Dance Back and Forth

WTI/CL Technical Analysis

The WTI crude oil market has gone back and forth during the trading session here on Monday as we are dancing around just below the $62 level—and perhaps just as importantly, the 50-day EMA. If the market were to break down from here, the $60 level could offer support as it has over the last several days. If it breaks down below there, we could open up the possibility of a move back down to the $58 level.

All things being equal, this is a market that I don’t really like at the moment. I think rallies continue to suffer here. There is a huge order block just above that, I think it continues to be very difficult to get beyond. So with that, I am looking at a market that, given enough time, might revisit the lows.

Brent Technical Analysis

The Brent market is also pretty noisy in early trading as we are hanging around the psychologically important $65 level, and of course, just below the 50-day EMA. If we break down from here, there is a gap that comes into the picture that we might need to fill. If we fill that, then a little bit of a bounce probably brings in fresh selling. The $60 level underneath opens up the possibility of a massive floor in the market.

I think a lot of the action based on Russian sanctions was a little overdone because, quite frankly, we jumped straight up in the air and then stopped. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that this isn’t exactly the first time we’ve had sanctions, and it really hasn’t changed anything. I don’t think this time is any different.

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