Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Pressuring the Top of a Range

WTI/CL Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has gone back and forth during the early part of trading here on Thursday, as we are testing the $65 level as resistance. The 50 day EMA sits at the bottom of the range so far for the day. But really at this point in time, I think the most important thing is the area between $65 and $66 and whether or not it holds. If it does, then we’re just going to drop back into the consolidation area that we’ve been in for a while.

It is worth noting that $62 is support. And I think that support extends down to the $60 level. All things being equal, this is a market that given enough time will have to make a bigger decision. And it certainly looks like it’s trying to break out to the upside, but we haven’t really reached the escape velocity yet. And with inventory numbers coming out, we’ll have to see how that plays out.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent markets are hanging around the $69 level, which, of course, is an area that’s been significant support and resistance. Also, the scene of a gap back at the beginning of the month of August. The 200 day EMA sits right around the $70 level. So, at this point, it’s close enough. I really need to see Brent break above there to get overly bullish.

Short-term pullbacks could be buying opportunities if you’re a short-term trader, but really at this point, we’re still at the top of a range. That hasn’t changed. $65 is the floor at the bottom, and we are nowhere near it. So, I think if we do start selling off, maybe short term short sellers might get involved in trying to drive it down there. But it looks like we’re trying to rally at least. So, we’ll just wait and see.

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