Based on the early price action, the direction of the crude oil market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $60.12.
March West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower on Tuesday. Traders are reacting to renewed weakness in the stock market. The selling pressure is also related to concerns that OPEC may have to make adjustments to its plan to limit production due to rising U.S. production.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $58.07 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The next potential target is the December 14 main bottom at $56.07.
The main range is $56.07 to $66.66. Its retracement zone is $61.37 to $60.12. This zone is acting like resistance.
The short-term range is $66.30 to $58.07. If buyers can overcome the main retracement zone then the short-term retracement zone at $62.19 to $63.16 will become the primary upside target.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the crude oil market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $60.12.
A sustained move under $60.12 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could create the downside momentum needed to challenge last week’s low at $58.07.
Taking out $58.07 with strong volume could trigger an acceleration into the next main bottom at $56.07.
Overcoming and sustaining a rally over $60.12 will signal the return of buyers. The next rally could be labored because of potential resistance levels at $61.37, $62.19 and $63.16.,
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.