Crude Oil Price Update – Bullish OPEC+ Decision Could Trigger Breakout Over $76.98 into $80.00

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures closed higher on Friday, finishing just short of a three-year high hit earlier in the week. All eyes will shift to the OPEC+ plus meeting on Monday where OPEC ministers are expected to maintain a steady pace in raising supply.

OPEC and its allies meet on Monday. The group is slowly unwinding record output cuts made last year, although sources told Reuters it is considering doing more to boost production.

On Friday, December WTI crude oil settled at $75.58, up $0.88 or +1.18%.

If OPEC+ continues to deliver the planned 400,000 bpd increase in November then look for prices to continue to trend higher. If they decide to bump up production as high as 600,000, for example, then look for the start of a near-term sell-off.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $76.26 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $69.05 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is $76.26 to $72.82. The market closed on the strong side of its pivot at $74.54 on Friday, making it support.

The short-term range is $69.05 to $76.26. Its retracement zone at $72.66 to $71.80 is a key support zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December WTI crude oil market early Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $74.54.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $74.54 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is $76.26. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into the July 6 main top at $76.98.

The main top at $76.98 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the psychological $80.00 level the next likely target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $74.54 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to accelerate into $72.82, followed by $72.66 to $71.80.

Buyers could step in on the first test of $72.66 to $71.80, but if the latter fails as support then look for an acceleration to the downside. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with potential targets a main bottom at $69.05, followed by a retracement zone at $68.69 to $66.90.